I’ve just returned from a tense meeting between New England governors and Eastern Canadian premiers in Stowe, Vermont, where the air felt as chilled as U.S.-Canadian economic relations have become under the weight of recent tariff policies.
“Every time we put up a barrier, it hurts somebody on both sides of the border,” Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker told me during a brief interview. The typically reserved Republican governor didn’t mince words about the economic reality facing his state and our northern neighbors.
The annual conference, designed to strengthen cross-border cooperation, instead became a forum for damage assessment as regional leaders grappled with the expanding economic fallout from Washington’s aggressive trade stance. The U.S.-Canada relationship, historically one of the world’s most stable trading partnerships, now finds itself on increasingly unstable ground.
Standing in the conference center, I watched Canadian officials quietly exchange concerned glances as American counterparts acknowledged the bilateral pain. This relationship generates nearly $2 billion in daily cross-border trade, according to U.S. Trade Representative data, supporting an estimated 9 million American jobs. Now those connections face significant strain.
Baker pointed specifically to Massachusetts steel fabricators facing substantially higher costs that threaten their competitiveness. “Steel tariffs are a big deal,” he emphasized, noting that his state’s manufacturers depend heavily on Canadian materials in their supply chains. When production costs rise in Massachusetts, the impact ripples across New England’s integrated economy.
The economic consequences extend well beyond industrial sectors. Tourism officials from Quebec and Maine described declining cross-border visits, while agricultural representatives warned of reduced market access for everything from New England lobster to Canadian dairy. What struck me most was the shared sense of powerlessness among these regional leaders against federal policy decisions made hundreds of miles away.
Canadian premiers expressed frustration over what they view as unnecessary economic self-harm. “We’re not adversaries, we’re partners,” said New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs, whose province sends approximately 90% of its exports to the United States. He described the tariffs as “creating artificial boundaries that hurt workers on both sides.”
The U.S. Department of Commerce reports that Canada remains America’s largest goods trading partner, with trade totaling $617.2 billion in 2019. Yet this massive economic relationship now operates under the shadow of tariffs and counter-tariffs that the International Monetary Fund has warned could reduce GDP growth in both nations.
What makes this dispute particularly painful for regional leaders is its disconnect from local economic realities. New England and Eastern Canada have spent decades building integrated supply chains, shared energy infrastructure, and cooperative tourism promotion. The tariffs threaten these careful collaborations with what several attendees described as “unnecessary friction.”
Vermont Governor Phil Scott echoed Baker’s concerns, telling the gathering that “our regional economy doesn’t recognize the international boundary in the same way national politics might.” His state shares 90 miles of border with Quebec and counts Canada as its largest trading partner.
Economists from both countries presented sobering data at the conference. A Brookings Institution analysis suggests the tariffs could eventually cost over 400,000 American jobs if fully implemented and met with proportional responses. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce estimates similar job losses north of the border.
Despite the tensions, I observed genuine efforts to maintain working relationships. Governors and premiers reaffirmed joint commitments on environmental protection, energy cooperation, and transportation infrastructure. Many emphasized that maintaining these practical collaborations has become even more critical as national relationships deteriorate.
“We can demonstrate at the regional level what good trade partnerships look like,” Baker suggested, positioning the New England-Eastern Canada relationship as a potential model for eventual national reconciliation.
As I departed the conference, conversations among delegates had shifted toward strategic planning – identifying ways to mitigate damage and preserve essential economic connections despite federal policies beyond their control. The message was clear: while national leaders may engage in trade conflicts, the consequences play out in regional economies where interdependence isn’t political theory but daily reality.
For residents on both sides of this 5,525-mile border – the world’s longest undefended international boundary – the hope remains that pragmatic economic interests will eventually outweigh political calculations. Until then, as Governor Baker succinctly put it, “Everybody loses in a trade war.”
