The sun had barely broken over the horizon when news alerts lit up my phone. Another U.S. strike on Iranian oil infrastructure, this time targeting export terminals along the Persian Gulf. Having just returned from a three-week reporting assignment in the UAE, the timing couldn’t be more significant.
“This isn’t about terrorism or nuclear capabilities anymore,” former Canadian Defence Chief Jonathan McKenzie told me during our call yesterday. “We’re witnessing the early stages of what could become a full-blown oil war with global implications.”
McKenzie’s assessment cuts through the diplomatic posturing that has characterized official statements. While the Pentagon maintains these precision strikes are meant to “degrade Iran’s ability to fund proxy militant groups,” the economic dimension is impossible to ignore.
I spoke with energy analysts at the International Energy Forum in Riyadh last week, where the mood was tense. “Every time a U.S. missile hits Iranian oil infrastructure, global markets jump 3-5%,” explained Fatima Al-Rashidi, senior petroleum economist. “But the long-term consequences could be far worse if Iran retaliates against Saudi or Emirati facilities.”
These strikes mark the third round of U.S. military action against Iranian targets in 2025, but the first explicitly targeting economic infrastructure rather than military installations. The Biden administration has shifted strategy considerably since January’s narrowly averted crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian naval vessels nearly collided with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group.
Walking through Brussels’ European Quarter this morning, I caught up with EU Energy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, who expressed deep concern. “Europe remains dangerously dependent on Middle Eastern oil despite our transition efforts. Any sustained conflict could send prices above $150 per barrel, triggering another inflation crisis when economies are still fragile.”
The human toll remains largely invisible in these geopolitical calculations. During my reporting in southern Iran last year, I met Hamid, a 43-year-old engineer at the very terminal now reduced to twisted metal and smoke. “We are not Revolutionary Guards or politicians. We are workers trying to feed our families,” he told me then.
U.S. intelligence estimates suggest Iran’s oil export capacity has been reduced by 40% following yesterday’s strikes. The Congressional Research Service projects this could cost Tehran approximately $25 billion in annual revenue – a devastating blow to an economy already struggling under existing sanctions.
What makes this escalation particularly dangerous is Iran’s asymmetric response capabilities. “Tehran doesn’t need to match American firepower,” McKenzie explained. “They only need to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or launch drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities to send oil prices soaring.”
Indeed, we’ve seen this playbook before. In 2019, drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing facility temporarily knocked out 5% of global oil production. Those attacks were attributed to Yemen’s Houthi rebels, though many experts pointed to Iranian involvement.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with roughly 21 million barrels passing through daily – nearly 20% of global consumption. During my time aboard the USS Nitze last month, U.S. Navy commanders described increasingly aggressive Iranian naval maneuvers in these narrow waters.
“We’re always one miscalculation away from a shooting war,” Lieutenant Commander Sara Reynolds told me as we stood on the destroyer’s bridge, watching Iranian fast boats circle at a distance.
The economic warfare aspect cannot be separated from broader regional dynamics. With Russia’s influence diminished following its Ukraine failures and China increasingly dependent on Iranian oil, the geopolitical chessboard has grown more complex.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wei Fenghe called the strikes “a dangerous provocation that threatens energy security across Asia” in a statement released this morning. Beijing has increased Iranian oil imports by 37% this year despite sanctions, according to customs data obtained by Reuters.
Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians continue bearing the economic burden. The rial has plummeted another 15% against the dollar since yesterday, according to Tehran’s unofficial exchange markets. Food prices have reportedly doubled in many cities over the past six months.
“The strategy appears to be economic pressure to force Iran back to nuclear negotiations,” says Dr. Vali Nasr, Middle East expert at Johns Hopkins University. “But history suggests such pressure often strengthens hardliners while punishing civilians.”
As global energy markets digest these developments, the question remains whether this calculated escalation will achieve its strategic aims or simply accelerate the cycle of retaliation that has defined U.S.-Iran relations for decades.
For now, oil tanker insurance premiums have jumped 200% overnight, according to Lloyd’s of London data. The real test will come in the next 72 hours as Tehran weighs its response options in what has become an increasingly dangerous economic battlefield.
