The clock never stops in Canadian business, and this week’s agenda sets the stage for decisions that could ripple through boardrooms and kitchen tables alike. From inflation indicators that might shape your mortgage to corporate earnings that signal where jobs are heading, here’s what business watchers should have on their radar.
Remember when Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem suggested interest rates might start coming down? That conversation gets more interesting Wednesday when Statistics Canada releases the latest Consumer Price Index. After inflation cooled to 2.9% in January, economists I’ve spoken with are watching for further deceleration that could finally put rate cuts firmly on the table for the spring.
“We’re in this delicate dance where inflation is retreating but not defeated,” explains Avery Chen, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets. “The Bank needs to see consistent readings within their target band before they’ll make a move.”
My sources at trading desks point to April as the earliest realistic date for the first cut, but everything hinges on these upcoming numbers. For Canadians carrying variable-rate debt, even a quarter-point reduction could mean thousands in savings over a year.
Meanwhile, corporate Canada delivers its own economic signals as several heavyweights report earnings. Energy infrastructure giant Enbridge opens its books on Friday, offering a window into the health of our energy transport systems amid persistent climate policy uncertainty.
“Enbridge’s capital spending plans will tell us more about long-term Canadian energy development than most government announcements,” notes Paige Morgan, energy transition analyst at Desjardins Securities. “Their executives have visibility into supply contracts that most of us don’t.”
I’ll be watching for Enbridge’s commentary on the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, which recently began operations after years of delays and budget overruns. Their perspective on oil transport capacity utilization could indicate whether Canadian producers can actually access the Asian markets that project was designed to reach.
Restaurant Brands International also reports this week. The parent company of Tim Hortons, Burger King, and Popeyes serves as a real-time gauge of consumer spending habits. With food inflation still running above headline rates, their same-store sales growth (or contraction) offers insights into household budget pressures.
Last quarter, Tim Hortons saw modest growth of 2.4% in Canada, but the real question is whether consumers are trading down to cheaper menu items – a classic sign of tightening wallets. When people start skipping the doughnut with their coffee, it’s time to worry about broader consumer spending.
The housing market gets its monthly checkup as the Canadian Real Estate Association releases January home sales data. After December’s surprising 8.7% month-over-month sales increase, analysts are watching whether that momentum continues or proves temporary.
“We’re seeing this strange situation where potential buyers know they should wait for rate cuts, but fear missing the opportunity if prices start climbing again,” says Toronto realtor Maya Wilkins, who’s seen her showing requests double since New Year’s. “It’s creating a nervous energy in the market.”
The urban-rural divide in housing continues to widen. While I’ve observed Toronto and Vancouver still struggling with affordability despite price corrections, smaller markets like Halifax and Winnipeg have seen surprising resilience. CREA’s regional breakdown will show whether this pattern holds or if we’re seeing new geographical shifts.
Perhaps most consequential for long-term economic planning, Statistics Canada releases wholesale and manufacturing sales data for December. These less-publicized indicators often provide early warning signs about the direction of GDP growth.
Manufacturing sales have contracted in three of the past five months, raising concerns about the sector’s health. Despite the weaker Canadian dollar theoretically boosting exports, persistent labor shortages and global supply chain reorganization have complicated the traditional relationships.
“The manufacturing data gives us the clearest picture of whether businesses are investing in future growth or battening down the hatches,” explains Dominique Lapointe, senior economist at Manulife Investment Management. “Right now, the signals are mixed at best.”
What I find most telling is the inventory-to-sales ratio across wholesale sectors. When businesses start accumulating inventory faster than they’re selling it, that often precedes production cuts and eventually job reductions. The December numbers will show whether the modest inventory builds we saw in November accelerated as the year ended.
Beyond the scheduled events, I’m keeping close watch on developments at Shopify, which unexpectedly announced a 20% increase in its subscription fees last week. As Canada’s e-commerce champion faces growing competition from Amazon and other platforms, their ability to raise prices without triggering merchant exodus could signal whether their competitive moat remains intact.
The confluence of these economic signals makes this a particularly revealing week. While no single data point determines economic direction, together they’ll provide the clearest picture yet of whether Canada can achieve the soft landing policymakers have been aiming for: inflation returning to target without triggering significant job losses.
For Canadians wondering what it all means: watch inflation for your borrowing costs, housing data for your biggest asset, and manufacturing sales for your job security. The numbers this week won’t just shape headlines – they’ll influence decisions from the central bank’s boardroom to your family’s dinner table.
