The small town of St. Albans, Vermont sits just 20 miles from the Canadian border. For decades, its shops, restaurants, and inns have relied on Canadian visitors who cross over for weekend getaways and shopping trips. But on a recent Tuesday afternoon, Main Street showed troubling signs of change.
“Five years ago, you couldn’t find parking on weekends because of Quebec plates,” says Margaret Wilcox, who owns a gift shop that’s been in her family for three generations. “Now I can count Canadian customers on one hand most weeks.”
This scene is playing out across Vermont’s northern communities, where Canadian tourism has plummeted nearly 30% since 2019, according to Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing figures released last month.
The decline represents more than just empty parking spaces. For border communities, it signals a significant economic and cultural shift that Vermont officials are now scrambling to address through unprecedented diplomatic outreach.
“We’re talking about a $380 million annual economic impact when Canadian tourism was at its peak,” explains Vermont Commerce Secretary Thomas Anderson during an interview at his Montpelier office. “These aren’t just statistics – they’re family businesses, local tax bases, and community identities built around cross-border relationships.”
The causes behind the tourism drop reflect a complex web of factors. The pandemic-era border restrictions created nearly two years of separation, with COVID testing requirements and quarantine rules complicating cross-border travel long after formal reopening. Meanwhile, the strengthening U.S. dollar has made American vacations increasingly expensive for Canadians facing their own cost-of-living pressures at home.
But perhaps most concerning to Vermont officials are the less tangible factors: a sense that the cultural connection between Vermont and Quebec has frayed amid broader Canada-U.S. tensions during recent years.
“This isn’t just about currency exchange rates,” says Dr. Elizabeth Bourgeois, an economics professor at the University of Vermont who specializes in cross-border commerce. “We’re seeing evidence that Canadians, particularly Quebecois, are choosing other destinations or staying home because they feel less welcome or less connected to Vermont than in previous generations.”
Last week, Governor Phil Scott launched what his office calls the “Good Neighbors Initiative,” a multi-agency effort to rebuild cultural and economic ties with Quebec and other Canadian provinces. The program includes expanded French-language services in tourist areas, cultural exchange events, and even a proposed driver’s license reciprocity program to simplify border crossings.
“The U.S.-Canada relationship was taken for granted for too long,” Governor Scott told a gathering of business leaders in Burlington. “When that relationship suffers, Vermont feels it first and most deeply.”
Tourism data tells a stark story. According to Statistics Canada, overnight trips by Canadians to Vermont dropped 43% compared to 2019 levels, a steeper decline than for any other border state. Day trips for shopping have seen similar declines, with duty-free shops at border crossings reporting sales down 38%.
For small business owners like Jean Tremblay, who runs a maple syrup operation in the Northeast Kingdom, the impacts go beyond simple economics.
“My grandparents came from Quebec, and we’ve always had this natural connection with customers from north of the border,” Tremblay explains while checking sap lines on his 300-acre property. “Now I’m wondering if my children will have that same connection or if something fundamental has changed.”
Political observers note that Vermont’s initiative represents more than local economic development. It signals a growing recognition that states must sometimes play their own diplomatic role when national relationships become strained.
“What we’re seeing in Vermont is a kind of state-level foreign policy,” explains Melissa Thompson, director of the Center for New England Studies at Dartmouth College. “When national diplomatic channels become politicized or dysfunctional, states with deep cross-border ties step into that vacuum.”
The Vermont Chamber of Commerce has partnered with its Quebec counterparts to launch an advertising campaign highlighting cultural connections between the regions. “Voisins Pour Toujours” (“Neighbors Forever”) billboards have appeared throughout southern Quebec, featuring images of shared landscapes and traditions.
Not everyone believes special initiatives are necessary. James Bergeron, a selectman in Derby Line, Vermont, argues that natural economic forces will eventually restore the relationship.
“Canadians will come back when our prices become competitive again and when the hassle factor at the border diminishes,” Bergeron contends. “We don’t need government programs – we need patience.”
Yet polling suggests the challenges may run deeper. A University of Montreal survey conducted in May found that 38% of Quebec residents who previously visited Vermont regularly now express hesitation about U.S. travel generally, citing concerns about political climate and border experiences.
Vermont Tourism Commissioner Mary Johnson acknowledges these perception challenges while unveiling new welcome center improvements last Thursday.
“We’re competing not just with Maine or New York, but with a certain narrative about America that doesn’t reflect Vermont’s values or welcome,” Johnson said while showcasing new bilingual signage. “Our job is to remind our Canadian friends that the Vermont they’ve always loved is still here.”
For communities like St. Albans, Derby Line, and Newport, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Municipal budgets built around tourism revenue are straining, and business owners worry about surviving another difficult winter without Canadian visitors.
Back at her gift shop in St. Albans, Margaret Wilcox remains cautiously optimistic. “Relationships can be repaired,” she says, straightening a display of maple candies. “But someone has to make the first move. I’m glad Vermont is trying.”
The question remains whether these state-level diplomatic efforts can overcome broader national tensions and economic forces – and whether the deep cultural connections between Vermont and Canada can be restored before more businesses like Wilcox’s become casualties of a changing border relationship.
