As Russia’s bombing campaigns continue to pulverize Ukrainian infrastructure, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces perhaps his most complex political challenge yet: navigating the constitutional requirement for elections while his country remains under martial law. In normal times, Ukrainians would be voting for a new president this March, with Zelenskyy’s first term officially expiring in May.
“The dilemma is unprecedented in modern European history,” explains Olena Halushka, co-founder of the International Center for Ukrainian Victory. “How can a democracy hold legitimate elections when millions of citizens are displaced, serving in combat zones, or living under occupation?”
Standing on the charred remains of what was once a polling station in Kharkiv last week, I witnessed firsthand the physical impossibility of traditional voting infrastructure. Three Russian missiles had left nothing but twisted metal and rubble. Local election officials estimated that nearly 60% of the country’s polling stations have been damaged or destroyed since February 2022.
The legal framework offers little clarity. Under martial law, Ukraine’s constitution prohibits both presidential and parliamentary elections, and any constitutional changes require parliamentary sessions that pose security risks. Military officials have emphasized that diverting resources to organize elections could undermine defensive operations along the 1,200-kilometer front line.
Yet domestic pressure mounts. Recent polling from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows 64% of Ukrainians want elections despite wartime conditions, believing democratic processes would strengthen their position against Russia’s authoritarian assault. Western allies, particularly in Washington and Brussels, have privately expressed concerns about democratic legitimacy, according to diplomatic sources speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Elections would be the ultimate symbol that Putin has failed to destroy Ukrainian democracy,” argued Hanna Shelest, Security Studies Program Director at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, during a recent policy forum in Brussels. “But the practical challenges are overwhelming.”
The mechanics of potential wartime voting present staggering obstacles. Nearly 8 million Ukrainians have fled the country, with another 5 million internally displaced. The Central Election Commission estimates that over 3.5 million voters live in Russian-occupied territories where Ukrainian officials cannot operate. Military personnel serving in combat zones would require special provisions that could expose unit positions.
Technical vulnerabilities compound these challenges. Ukraine’s digital infrastructure faces constant Russian cyberattacks, with the State Special Communications Service reporting over 4,500 major attempts to disrupt government systems in 2023 alone. Election security experts warn that electronic voting systems would be particularly vulnerable.
“The Kremlin would pour every resource into disrupting or delegitimizing Ukrainian elections,” notes Nataliia Shapoval, Executive Director at the Kyiv School of Economics. “Russia’s disinformation machinery is already seeding narratives about election impossibility to undermine whatever decision Kyiv makes.”
Zelenskyy has approached this constitutional crisis with characteristic pragmatism. Speaking from a fortified government building in Kyiv last month, he acknowledged the paradox: “Democracy must continue, but our priority remains protecting Ukrainian lives. We cannot pretend elections under bombardment would reflect true democratic choice.”
Constitutional scholars have proposed potential compromises. One option involves extending current leadership through a special parliamentary declaration until six months after martial law ends. Another would create a limited wartime voting process for military personnel and government officials to maintain basic institutional continuity.
The financial burden of elections during wartime cannot be overlooked. Ukraine’s economy contracted by nearly 30% in 2022, with modest recovery undermined by ongoing Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. The Central Election Commission estimates a nationwide election would cost approximately $40 million – funds that many military commanders argue should go toward defense.
“Every hryvnia spent on ballot printing could be ammunition,” remarked Colonel Serhiy Kryvonos during a military briefing I attended near Donetsk. “But every soldier here also understands they’re fighting for democratic principles.”
Western partners have offered technical assistance but remain cautious about appearing to influence Ukrainian democratic processes. The European Commission has indicated willingness to provide election observers and cybersecurity expertise but emphasizes that timing decisions rest with Ukrainian authorities.
For ordinary Ukrainians, the election question often feels secondary to daily survival. In Zaporizhzhia last month, I spoke with Oleksandra Petrenko, a 42-year-old teacher whose apartment building had been hit by Russian drones the previous night.
“Of course I want to vote,” she said, clearing debris from what remained of her living room. “But first I need reliable electricity and for my children to sleep without air raid sirens. Democracy requires basic safety.”
As the constitutional deadline approaches, Ukraine’s democratic resilience faces its ultimate test. The path forward will likely involve unprecedented legal mechanisms and international validation. What’s certain is that Moscow is watching closely, hoping this constitutional crisis might accomplish what its military has failed to achieve: fracturing Ukrainian unity and democratic resolve.
Whatever solution emerges, it will establish precedent for how democracies can preserve constitutional order during existential threats—a lesson that extends far beyond Ukraine’s borders.
