Trade tensions reached a pivotal point yesterday as Mark Carney, Ottawa’s special envoy on U.S.-Canada trade relations, met with former president Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. The high-level discussion comes amid mounting concerns about Trump’s promises of sweeping tariffs should he return to the White House following November’s election.
“The conversation was substantive and constructive,” said a source close to the Canadian delegation who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly. “Both sides recognize the deeply integrated nature of our economies, though significant differences remain about future trade policy.”
Trump has repeatedly threatened 10-25% blanket tariffs on imports from all countries, with a particular focus on Canada, claiming unfair trade practices despite the USMCA agreement that replaced NAFTA during his first administration. Such measures would devastate Canada’s economy, which sends approximately 75% of its exports south of the border.
The meeting signals Ottawa’s proactive approach rather than waiting for potential electoral outcomes. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau authorized the outreach last month as part of a broader strategy to protect Canada’s economic interests amid the uncertain political landscape in Washington.
Carney, the former Bank of England and Bank of Canada governor, brings significant economic credibility to these delicate discussions. His appointment in March as special envoy raised eyebrows in diplomatic circles but demonstrates Canada’s determination to leverage high-profile figures with international standing.
“Canada needs to be realistic about the protectionist sentiment coursing through American politics right now,” said Laura Dawson, director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute. “This isn’t just about Trump – there’s bipartisan support for certain protectionist measures, particularly around critical minerals, electric vehicles, and energy security.”
The Canadian delegation reportedly highlighted that Canada supplies critical resources for U.S. manufacturing and defense, including 13 of the 50 critical minerals Washington has identified as essential. They emphasized that disrupting these supply chains would harm American manufacturing and potentially drive up costs for U.S. consumers.
According to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, approximately $2.6 billion worth of goods and services cross the border daily, supporting millions of jobs on both sides. Any significant tariff regime would ripple through integrated supply chains in automotive manufacturing, agriculture, energy, and aerospace sectors.
“We’re not dealing with textbook economics here, but political economics,” said Daniel Ujczo, an Ohio-based cross-border trade attorney with Dickinson Wright. “The Canadian team needs to frame arguments around U.S. jobs and security, not just mutual economic benefit.”
Trump reportedly reiterated his concerns about Canadian aluminum and steel production, sectors he targeted with tariffs during his presidency before removing them following a negotiated agreement. The Canadian side countered with data showing bilateral trade has remained largely balanced, with Canada purchasing more American goods in recent years than China, Japan, and the UK combined.
The stakes extend beyond immediate economic concerns. A significant trade dispute could complicate cooperation on other fronts, including defense through NORAD, border security, and emerging challenges like artificial intelligence regulation and climate adaptation.
Some observers question the timing and optics of engaging with a candidate before an election. “This is unusual diplomatic protocol, but these are unusual times,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute. “Ottawa clearly sees this as a risk management exercise, regardless of November’s outcome.”
The Canadian government has been building a bipartisan approach to Washington relations, with Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland maintaining dialogue with key Democratic and Republican figures. Finance Minister Freeland’s office confirmed she has held discussions with several state governors whose economies are deeply connected to Canadian trade.
For Canada’s business community, the uncertainty alone poses challenges. “Companies are already stress-testing their supply chains and examining contingency plans,” said Goldy Hyder, president of the Business Council of Canada. “The mere threat of tariffs influences investment decisions today.”
The meeting reflects the new reality of international economic diplomacy, where personal relationships and direct engagement often supersede traditional diplomatic channels. Whether this approach yields results remains to be seen, but it demonstrates Canada’s recognition that protecting its economic relationship with its largest trading partner requires unprecedented measures.
As one Canadian diplomat noted privately: “We’re preparing for all scenarios while working to prevent the worst ones. That’s the prudent approach when nearly three-quarters of your exports go to one market.”
