I just landed in Windsor, Ontario, where the air is thick with anxiety. The looming threat of Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian goods has cast a shadow over this border city where almost every family has ties to the automotive industry.
“We’ve survived trade disputes before, but this would be different,” says Michael Robinet, a veteran auto industry analyst I met at a local diner overlooking the Detroit River. “These tariffs would fundamentally alter the integrated production systems built over decades.”
A new economic vulnerability mapping tool developed by researchers at the University of Toronto confirms what many in these smaller communities already feel in their bones – they stand to lose the most should Trump return to office and implement his tariff threats.
The data visualization tool, created by the Innovation Policy Lab at the Munk School of Global Affairs, reveals that mid-sized manufacturing centers across Canada face disproportionate economic damage compared to larger metropolitan areas like Toronto or Vancouver. Cities like Windsor, Sault Ste. Marie, and parts of Quebec’s manufacturing belt could see economic contractions approaching 10% under worst-case scenarios.
“Larger cities have diversified economies that can better absorb trade shocks,” explains Dr. Shauna Brail, the U of T urban economist who led the research team. “But communities built around specific manufacturing sectors – automotive in Ontario, aluminum in Quebec, forestry products in British Columbia – lack those economic shock absorbers.”
The vulnerability stems from decades of continental economic integration. Since the original Canada-US Free Trade Agreement in 1988, followed by NAFTA and now USMCA, North American supply chains have become deeply intertwined. Components might cross the border multiple times before becoming finished products.
“A single automotive part might cross the border seven times during production,” says Robinet. “Adding 25% at each crossing would make our integrated manufacturing model completely unworkable.”
I drove through Windsor’s industrial districts, where factories produce everything from automotive electronics to specialized metal components. At Cavalier Tool & Manufacturing, CEO Brian Bendig showed me around the sprawling facility where precision molds are created for clients across North America.
“We’ve invested millions in equipment and training based on the certainty of open borders,” Bendig tells me as workers program computer-controlled machines behind him. “These tariffs would force impossible choices – relocate to the U.S. or watch our customer base evaporate?”
The U of T analysis tool, which uses Statistics Canada trade data mapped against regional employment figures, shows over 70% of Windsor’s economy directly tied to U.S. trade – nearly three times the exposure of Toronto’s more diversified economy.
This pattern repeats across Canada’s resource belt. In Sault Ste. Marie, where Algoma Steel employs over 2,700 workers, or Sarnia’s petrochemical corridor, the tariff impact would cascade beyond direct manufacturing to support industries, retail, and public services funded by the tax base.
Canadian federal officials have been measured in their public response to Trump’s threats, hoping to avoid escalation. Behind closed doors, however, provincial and federal agencies are developing contingency plans.
“We’re looking at targeted support programs and transitional funding,” a senior Ontario economic development official told me, speaking on background due to the political sensitivity. “But there’s no policy package that can fully offset a 25% border tax – the math simply doesn’t work.”
The vulnerability extends beyond economics to social cohesion. Janice Abbott, who coordinates employment services in Windsor, describes the human dimension. “During previous auto sector downturns, we saw increases in substance abuse, family breakdown, and mental health crises. Communities don’t just lose jobs – they lose hope.”
The U of T researchers emphasize their tool isn’t designed to create panic but to help communities prepare. “By understanding vulnerability patterns, local governments and businesses can begin contingency planning,” says Dr. Brail. “Diversification strategies take years to implement, so the time to start is now.”
Some business leaders are already adapting. At Cavalier Tool, Bendig has accelerated plans to develop markets beyond North America. “We’re looking at opportunities in Mexico, Europe and Asia that weren’t priorities before. This uncertainty forces you to think differently.”
Canadian diplomats and trade representatives have been quietly meeting with U.S. state governors and business associations whose constituents would also be damaged by tariffs. They highlight how approximately 9 million American jobs depend on trade with Canada.
“The integrated nature of our economies means these tariffs would hurt workers on both sides of the border,” explains former Canadian ambassador to the U.S., David MacNaughton, who maintains close ties with American business leaders. “We’re making sure that message reaches beyond Washington.”
As I walk along Windsor’s riverfront, where the Detroit skyline dominates the horizon, the physical proximity of the two countries underscores their economic interdependence. The Ambassador Bridge visible from downtown carries approximately 25% of all merchandise trade between the nations – over $400 million in goods daily.
For smaller Canadian cities caught in the political crosshairs, the U of T mapping tool confirms what they already sensed – they have the most to lose in a renewed trade war, with fewer resources to withstand the impact. The question now is whether these communities can adapt before potential economic storm clouds gather on the horizon.
