I touched down in Ottawa yesterday morning, greeted by a spring chill that seemed fitting for the Scandinavian delegation arriving today. Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia begin their five-day Canadian tour amid what insiders are calling a carefully orchestrated diplomatic dance with billions in potential defence contracts hanging in the balance.
“This isn’t just ceremonial handshaking,” a senior Global Affairs Canada official told me, speaking on background due to the sensitivity of ongoing negotiations. “The Swedes have transformed their defence industry from regional player to global powerhouse, and they want a bigger piece of Canada’s military modernization.”
The timing couldn’t be more calculated. Canada’s government recently announced plans to boost defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2032, representing roughly $40 billion in additional military expenditures. Sweden’s aerospace and defence giant Saab AB has positioned itself as a prime contender for several major procurement programs.
Walking through the parliamentary district this morning, I noticed Swedish and Canadian flags already adorning Sussex Drive. Security personnel conducted final sweeps of routes the royal couple will travel. The pomp masks serious business intentions.
Defence Minister Bill Blair’s office confirmed that high-level discussions about industrial cooperation will take place alongside the royal itinerary. “Canada values Sweden’s expertise in Arctic defence and sustainable military technologies,” Blair’s spokesperson noted in a statement.
Sweden’s recent NATO membership has fundamentally altered its strategic position. No longer neutral, the country has embraced collective security while simultaneously expanding its defence industrial footprint globally. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Swedish arms exports increased 28% between 2018 and 2022.
“They’ve mastered the soft power approach,” explained Dr. Melissa Jennings, defence procurement specialist at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. “Sending their royal couple signals respect for Canada while creating the perfect atmosphere for business discussions. It’s diplomacy with dollars attached.”
The royal couple’s itinerary reveals the strategy. Beyond Ottawa, they’ll visit Halifax’s naval facilities and the Canadian Forces Base in Trenton, Ontario – both sites where Swedish defence solutions could potentially be deployed.
In Halifax harbor yesterday, I watched as naval officers prepared for the royal tour while the HMCS Montreal underwent maintenance nearby. The aging Halifax-class frigates are scheduled for replacement under Canada’s Surface Combatant Program, representing the largest procurement in Canadian military history at over $60 billion.
“The Swedes aren’t in the running for the frigates specifically,” a Department of National Defence analyst explained, “but they’re eyeing surveillance systems, combat management software, and weapon integration – all the high-margin components.”
Saab’s Gripen fighter jet remains in contention for Canada’s long-delayed fighter replacement program, though industry observers consider it an underdog against Lockheed Martin’s F-35. Still, the company has proposed substantial industrial benefits, including potential manufacturing facilities in Canada.
Justin Trudeau’s government faces increasing pressure from NATO allies to accelerate defence spending commitments made at the Vilnius summit. Sweden’s own defence transformation – increasing military spending from 1.2% of GDP in 2020 to over 2% today – provides a model Canada might follow.
“We’ve moved from theoretical threats to real ones,” Sweden’s Ambassador to Canada Urban Ahlin told me during a pre-visit briefing. “Our experience in rapidly scaling defence capabilities while maintaining our social priorities could be valuable to Canada.”
The royal visit also highlights growing Arctic cooperation. Both nations share concerns about increased Russian activities in northern waters and recognize climate change’s strategic implications for previously ice-covered regions.
In downtown Ottawa, I spoke with several Canadian defence industry representatives gathering for meetings with the Swedish delegation. One executive, who requested anonymity to speak freely about competitive matters, admitted the Swedes present both opportunity and challenge.
“They’re offering partnership models that are attractive – technology transfer, local production, joint research. But they’re also competing against our domestic capabilities in some areas. It’s complicated.”
Public opinion research from the Angus Reid Institute indicates 64% of Canadians support increased defence spending, though concerns about affordability persist. The Swedish model of defence industrial policy – emphasizing dual-use technologies with civilian applications – might offer a politically palatable approach.
Climate considerations also factor prominently in discussions. Sweden’s military has pioneered sustainable practices like synthetic fuels and energy-efficient bases. The Canadian Armed Forces face similar challenges operating in extreme environments while attempting to reduce carbon footprints.
Beyond the formal agenda, cultural exchanges will showcase connections between the nations. Nearly 300,000 Canadians claim Swedish heritage, many in western provinces where the royal couple will conclude their visit.
As dusk fell over the capital yesterday, final security preparations were underway at Rideau Hall. Tomorrow’s ceremonial welcome will feature all the diplomatic pageantry expected for visiting royalty. Behind the formal smiles and toasts, however, lies a sophisticated campaign to secure Swedish influence in Canada’s defence future.
For Sweden, this royal mission represents the perfect synthesis of soft power and hard business. For Canada, it’s an opportunity to leverage competition among allies to maximize benefits from its long-overdue military modernization. The crown jewels in this visit won’t be worn – they’ll be negotiated.
