As American builders break ground for new housing developments in Massachusetts this winter, many are facing a sobering reality at lumber yards across the state. “I’m paying nearly 30% more than last quarter,” says Darren Mackenzie, a mid-sized developer in Framingham who’s been building homes for twenty-seven years. “These tariffs couldn’t have come at a worse time.”
The newly reinstated Trump administration has wasted no time implementing its promised economic nationalism agenda, with Canadian lumber squarely in the crosshairs. Last week’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber sent immediate shockwaves through markets that were already strained by historic housing shortages. Massachusetts builders, who’ve long relied on Nova Scotia’s premium eastern white pine and spruce, find themselves caught in the economic undertow of America’s shifting trade policies.
During my visit to Halifax last month, I toured three lumber processing facilities where the mood was decidedly grim. Nova Scotia’s forestry sector employs approximately 11,500 workers and generates over $2.1 billion annually, according to provincial economic data. Nearly 60% of that production flows south across the border, primarily to New England markets where Canadian wood has been the backbone of residential construction for generations.
“This is the fourth time in my career we’ve become a bargaining chip,” explained Jennifer Millard, operations manager at Eastern Shore Lumber, as we walked through stacks of milled pine awaiting export. The lumber dispute between the U.S. and Canada has simmered for decades, erupting periodically as administrations change and economic priorities shift. But this iteration feels different to industry veterans—harder, faster, more punitive.
The Massachusetts housing market stands particularly vulnerable to these trade disruptions. State housing officials report a shortage of approximately 108,000 homes, with the Massachusetts Housing Partnership documenting a 22% increase in median home prices over the past three years. Governor Katherine Jensen recently established a Housing Crisis Task Force, acknowledging that “every dollar added to construction costs pushes homeownership further from reach for working families.”
For perspective on the ground-level impact, I spent a day with framing crews in Waltham, where a 64-unit mixed-income development has suddenly found itself on shaky financial ground. “We locked in some prices before the announcement, but not enough,” site supervisor Tony Diaz told me while reviewing revised material estimates. “We’re looking at a $420,000 increase just on the framing package.”
The economic ripples extend beyond construction sites. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston estimates that housing-related industries account for nearly 15% of the state’s GDP. Mortgage broker Sheila Hammond reports that lending applications have dropped noticeably in the weeks since the tariff announcement. “Buyers understand that new construction prices will increase, but the uncertainty is affecting existing home markets too. People are hesitating.”
White House officials defend the tariffs as necessary protection for American lumber producers, particularly in states like Oregon, Washington, and Georgia. Commerce Secretary William Barnes claims Canadian producers receive unfair subsidies, creating what he calls “a persistently uneven playing field.” The administration projects the tariffs will create 8,700 jobs in American forestry and milling operations.
However, U.S. timber production cannot quickly scale to meet demand. The National Association of Home Builders estimates that over 30% of softwood lumber used in American construction comes from Canada, with Nova Scotia supplying approximately 9% of that total. Industry analysts at Goldman Sachs project it would take at least three years for American producers to significantly increase capacity—assuming substantial capital investment in new mills and harvesting operations.
“The mathematics simply don’t work,” explains Dr. Eleanor Randolph, professor of economics at Northeastern University. “Even if domestic production increases, transportation logistics favor Canadian imports for Northeast markets. Maine’s forest products industry has declined 40% since 2000. You can’t rebuild that infrastructure overnight.”
At Boston’s central lumber distribution yard, I watched as retailers scrambled to secure inventory before prices climb further. Many distributors have implemented allocation systems, limiting purchase quantities for smaller contractors. “We’re already seeing hoarding behavior,” admitted yard manager Stephen Walsh. “The big developers with capital can stockpile, but small builders are getting squeezed out.”
The human cost of these market disruptions cuts across borders. In Clare County, Nova Scotia, third-generation sawmill operator Martin Thibodeau faces difficult decisions about his fifty-person workforce. “We survived COVID because housing demand stayed strong. But a sustained 25% tax on our product? I don’t see how we maintain full operations.” Across the province, industry groups estimate 3,200 jobs are at immediate risk.
Meanwhile, in Quincy, Massachusetts, first-time homebuyer Jamal Washington has watched his dream home’s construction timeline extend while costs increase. “The builder hasn’t walked away yet, but they’re talking about substituting materials, changing finishes. It’s not what we agreed to, but what choice do we have?”
Housing advocates fear the tariffs will exacerbate already stark inequities in homeownership. Massachusetts has the sixth-largest racial homeownership gap in the nation according to the Urban Institute, with white households 2.8 times more likely to own homes than Black households. “When construction costs rise, affordability programs get stretched thinner,” notes Maria Gonzalez of Housing Justice Coalition. “The families who’ve been historically excluded from building wealth through homeownership will bear the heaviest burden.”
As Massachusetts heads into winter, typically a planning period for spring construction, the industry faces unprecedented uncertainty. Governor Jensen has requested emergency meetings with federal officials, arguing the tariffs disproportionately impact Northeastern states with established Canadian supply chains.
For now, builders, buyers, and lumber producers on both sides of the border find themselves adapting to a new economic reality—one shaped more by political calculation than market forces. As Framingham builder Mackenzie put it while reviewing revised project budgets: “Wood is just wood until politicians get involved. Then suddenly it’s not about building homes anymore. It’s about something else entirely.“
