Article – Trudeau’s diplomatic freeze with Beijing appears to be thawing as Saskatchewan’s Premier Scott Moe returned from China with cautious optimism. After meeting with high-ranking Chinese officials last week, Moe believes there’s “a pathway forward” to address the crushing tariffs that have devastated Canadian agricultural exports since 2023.
“What we heard directly from Chinese officials is that they’re ready to talk,” Moe told reporters at the provincial legislature yesterday. “This isn’t just about canola anymore. We’re seeing potential openings across multiple export categories if we approach these negotiations strategically.”
The trade dispute, which began as targeted retaliation against Canadian canola before expanding to beef, pork, and barley, has cost Prairie provinces billions in lost revenue. China’s approach shifted notably after the October federal election reshaped Canada’s political landscape, with Beijing signaling interest in what they called “practical diplomacy” with provincial leaders.
Data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada shows Saskatchewan exports to China dropped 42% since the tariffs were implemented, representing a $1.8 billion annual loss to the provincial economy. The delegation’s meetings with China’s Vice Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Zhang Wengui, marked the highest-level direct engagement between Canadian and Chinese officials in over two years.
“They were surprisingly candid about their priorities,” said Moe, who traveled with a delegation of agricultural producers and energy sector representatives. “They want Canadian resources and agricultural products, but they’re demanding a reset in how we engage on security and diplomatic fronts.”
Foreign affairs analysts remain skeptical about provincial-level diplomacy succeeding where federal efforts have stalled. Dr. Lynette Ong from the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs warns against premature optimism.
“What we’re seeing is classic divide-and-conquer tactics from Beijing,” Ong explained. “They’re dangling economic relief to provinces while attempting to circumvent federal jurisdiction on broader issues like security and human rights.”
The Saskatchewan delegation visited Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai, meeting with potential buyers and government officials. Chinese importers expressed eagerness to resume purchasing Canadian agricultural products but repeatedly referenced the need for a “new understanding” on bilateral relations.
For farmers like Travis Heide, who operates one of Canada’s largest organic farms near Regina, the diplomatic maneuvering can’t move fast enough. “We’ve lost nearly 40% of our market overnight. Some of my neighbors have sold their equipment because they can’t make payments with prices this depressed,” Heide said during a phone interview.
Moe’s visit follows a similar mission by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in September, which yielded memorandums of understanding but no concrete tariff reductions. Both premiers have publicly urged Prime Minister Trudeau to allow provinces greater autonomy in trade negotiations with China.
“The reality is that our producers can’t wait for perfect diplomatic conditions,” Moe said. “We need practical solutions now, and if provincial engagement creates an opening, we need to pursue it aggressively.”
Federal Trade Minister Mary Ng responded cautiously to Moe’s initiative, stating that while provincial trade promotion is welcome, “international trade agreements remain under federal jurisdiction.” Sources within Global Affairs Canada, speaking on background, indicated that Ottawa views the provincial outreach as potentially undermining Canada’s unified bargaining position.
The Chinese Embassy in Ottawa released a statement following Moe’s visit, noting: “China values its trade relationship with Canada’s provinces and welcomes dialogue that respects mutual interests and sovereignty concerns.”
Economic analysis from the Conference Board of Canada suggests that resolving the tariff dispute could boost Canadian GDP by 0.4% annually, with disproportionate benefits flowing to Prairie provinces. However, former Canadian ambassador to China Guy Saint-Jacques cautions that economic concessions will come with political strings attached.
“Beijing’s playbook hasn’t changed,” Saint-Jacques observed. “They’re offering economic carrots while still demanding concessions on security, technology, and human rights. The question is whether Canada can negotiate favorable terms or if provinces will undercut our national position out of economic desperation.”
For Prairie farmers planning their 2026 planting decisions, the diplomatic nuances matter less than concrete results. “We just need markets reopened,” said Heide. “If China wants our canola and we want to sell it to them, surely adults in the room can figure out how to make that happen.”
Moe plans to brief federal officials next week and has already spoken with his counterparts in Manitoba and Alberta about coordinating provincial engagement with China. “We’re not looking to replace federal diplomacy,” Moe insisted. “We’re simply opening doors that have been firmly shut for too long.”
