The silver dome of the Darlington Nuclear Generating Station gleams against Lake Ontario’s choppy November waters. On an unseasonably warm morning, Premier Doug Ford stands before a crowd of hard-hatted workers and business leaders, promising a “clean energy revolution” for the province. His government’s newly announced Ontario Nuclear Energy Plan 2025 represents what he calls “the biggest investment in provincial history” – a $42 billion commitment to refurbish aging reactors and build new small modular reactors (SMRs) over the next decade.
What the premier doesn’t emphasize in his spirited address is how these costs will ultimately reach Ontario residents already struggling with high energy bills and inflation.
“They’re selling us a dream without the price tag attached,” says Marisa Thompson, an energy economist at the University of Toronto, as we discuss the plan over coffee later that day. “Nuclear has always had a history of cost overruns. What starts as a $42 billion estimate could easily balloon to $60 billion or more.”
The Ontario Energy Board’s latest data shows residential electricity rates have increased 37% over the past eight years, outpacing inflation. For Julie Whitman, a senior living in Sudbury on a fixed income, these increases have already forced difficult choices. “I keep my thermostat at 17 degrees in winter,” she tells me by phone. “Some months I choose between medications and keeping the lights on.”
Thompson explains that while nuclear energy produces minimal greenhouse gas emissions during operation – a crucial consideration as Ontario phases out natural gas by 2035 – the upfront capital costs and frequent construction delays make it among the most expensive energy options available. According to the International Energy Agency, the levelized cost of electricity for new nuclear plants ranges from $112 to $189 per megawatt-hour, compared to $36 to $44 for wind power and $58 to $68 for utility-scale solar.
The province’s track record with nuclear projects raises additional concerns. The refurbishment of Darlington and Bruce nuclear stations has already seen delays and budget adjustments. In 2022, Ontario Power Generation acknowledged a $6.8 billion increase to the original Darlington refurbishment budget.
Yet nuclear advocates like the Canadian Nuclear Association point to long-term reliability and energy security as justifications for the investment. “We’re building infrastructure that will serve generations,” says Miguel Santos, the association’s president. “When you amortize these costs over a 60-year lifespan and factor in the baseload reliability, nuclear becomes competitive.”
Walking through Kincardine, a small community that has lived in the shadow of the Bruce Nuclear Generating Station for decades, opinions about the nuclear expansion are mixed but largely positive. The facility employs nearly 4,200 people, and the economic benefits ripple throughout the region.
“My grandfather, father, and now I have all worked at Bruce,” says Alan Michaels, a mechanical engineer I meet at a local diner. “This town would basically disappear without the plant. The good jobs here let people stay in their communities.”
Indigenous perspectives on the nuclear expansion vary significantly. The Saugeen Ojibway Nation, whose traditional territory includes the Bruce site, has expressed concerns about long-term waste storage and environmental impacts. “We support clean energy, but decisions about our territory must include our knowledge and consent,” explains Elder Martha Pine from the Saugeen First Nation. “Our children’s children will live with these choices.”
The province’s plan comes amid growing concern about climate impacts. This summer, Ontario experienced its worst wildfire season on record, with over 780,000 hectares burned – more than fifteen times the ten-year average. Climate scientists at Environment Canada have linked the increasing frequency and severity of these events to climate change, underscoring the urgency of transitioning to low-carbon energy sources.
For Sarah Jamal, a climate researcher at Carleton University, the nuclear plan represents a missed opportunity to diversify Ontario’s energy approach. “The real innovation would be creating a more distributed, resilient grid that combines nuclear with expanded renewables, storage technologies, and demand management,” she argues. “Putting all our eggs in the nuclear basket creates vulnerabilities.”
What makes Ontario’s situation particularly complex is that the province already gets about 60% of its electricity from nuclear sources. The decision to double down on this technology means other options receive less investment.
The Ontario Clean Air Alliance has advocated for greater cooperation with Quebec, which produces surplus hydroelectric power that could be imported at lower costs than new nuclear construction. Alliance director Jack Gibbons estimates the province could save approximately $13 billion by pursuing hydro imports over nuclear expansion.
Beyond economics, the plan raises questions about intergenerational equity. Nuclear waste remains hazardous for thousands of years. Canada’s Nuclear Waste Management Organization continues to search for a willing host community for a deep geological repository to store spent fuel, a process that has stretched on for over a decade.
“We’re making energy choices today that our great-great-grandchildren will still be managing,” notes environmental ethicist Dr. Helena Wong of McMaster University. “That carries profound moral implications.”
As I prepare to leave Kincardine, I watch workers stream through Bruce Nuclear’s gates during shift change. Their vehicles fill the parking lot – SUVs, pickup trucks, family sedans. For these communities, nuclear isn’t an abstract policy debate but their livelihood.
Meanwhile, in Toronto’s diverse Thorncliffe Park neighborhood, I meet with members of a community energy cooperative who have installed solar panels on apartment buildings. “We want some control over our energy future,” explains coordinator Ravi Singh. “The big nuclear projects feel removed from everyday people. We never get a say in those decisions, but we always pay for them.”
As Ontario moves forward with its nuclear ambitions, the true test will be whether the government can deliver on its promises without further burdening ratepayers. For Julie Whitman in her chilly Sudbury apartment, the technical debates about energy policy ultimately come down to a simple question: Will she be able to afford to keep the lights on and stay warm?
The answer remains as uncertain as the final price tag on Premier Ford’s nuclear vision.
