The minute hand on the Milton Town Hall clock ticked past midnight as election volunteers huddled over ballots for the third straight day. In a riding where just 41 votes separated Liberal candidate Samara Singh from Conservative incumbent Derek Wilson in last week’s preliminary count, every mark on every ballot has been scrutinized with surgical precision.
“You can feel the weight of democracy in that room,” Singh told me during a brief coffee break outside the recount center. “It’s exhausting but exhilarating at the same time.”
The newly-formed Milton East-Halton Hills South riding has emerged as one of this election’s most compelling battlegrounds – a perfect microcosm of how demographic shifts are reshaping political fortunes across the Greater Toronto Area.
Singh, a 42-year-old environmental lawyer and first-time candidate, expressed what she called “guarded optimism” as the recount process entered its final stages. Elections Canada officials expect to announce final results by tomorrow afternoon.
“We knew this would be tight from the beginning,” Singh said. “This region has seen tremendous population growth, particularly among younger families and new Canadians. Those voices wanted change.”
The riding’s creation itself tells a story about Canada’s evolving electoral map. Following the 2021 census, boundary commissioners carved this new district from portions of Milton and Halton Hills, creating what pollsters initially categorized as “likely Conservative” territory based on previous voting patterns.
Ipsos Reid’s final pre-election survey had projected a 5-point Conservative advantage here. “What we’re seeing is the limitations of traditional polling in rapidly changing communities,” explained Dr. Mariam Abou-Zeid, political scientist at McMaster University. “The demographics shifted faster than the models could capture.”
According to Statistics Canada, Milton’s population grew by nearly 21% between 2016 and 2021 – the fastest growth rate in Ontario and third nationally. Much of that growth has come from young professionals and families seeking affordable housing outside Toronto’s core.
At Sabrina’s Coffee Shop on Main Street, where Singh’s campaign team established an unofficial headquarters during the campaign, barista Emma Chen confirmed the changing face of the community.
“Five years ago, most of my customers were retirees and longtime residents,” Chen said. “Now it’s tech workers, young families, people from all backgrounds. The conversations are different.”
Wilson, who previously represented parts of the area under the old boundaries, ran a campaign emphasizing fiscal responsibility and his record delivering infrastructure funding. At his campaign office, now largely quiet except for a few volunteers monitoring the recount, signs still prominently display his slogan: “Experience When It Matters Most.”
His campaign manager, Patricia Houlihan, expressed frustration with the recount process but maintained confidence. “Derek has served this community faithfully for years. We believe voters recognized that commitment.”
The riding’s unique geography further complicates political forecasting. It encompasses established Milton neighborhoods along with newer developments and rural portions of Halton Hills – creating distinct voting blocs with different priorities.
Singh’s campaign focused heavily on environmental protection, housing affordability, and expanded childcare options – issues that resonated particularly with newer residents. Her team also conducted extensive outreach in languages including Punjabi, Urdu, and Mandarin, reflecting the riding’s growing diversity.
Election day itself produced dramatic swings. Early returns from rural polls showed Wilson building a comfortable lead, but as results came in from newer subdivisions and apartment complexes, Singh steadily closed the gap.
By midnight, with 97% of polls reporting, Wilson’s lead had shrunk to double digits, triggering an automatic recount under Elections Canada rules for margins less than 0.1% of total votes cast.
“This riding exemplifies the broader realignment we’re seeing across southern Ontario,” noted
