I stepped onto the Vancouver set of “Starshine Valley” last Friday, where an eerie quiet had replaced the usual chaotic energy of production. Crews stood in small clusters, phones in hand, sharing news updates rather than call sheets. Just hours earlier, president-elect Donald Trump had announced his intention to impose tariffs of “at least 25%” on foreign-made films and television shows entering the U.S. market.
“We’re on hold until further notice,” explained Sarah Chen, a production coordinator who had been working steady gigs across British Columbia for nearly five years. “The studio executives want to see how serious these threats are before committing more money.”
The anxiety coursing through Canada’s $12.8 billion film industry reflects a larger economic uncertainty as Trump’s return to power threatens to upend delicate trade relationships that have weathered previous tensions but remain vulnerable to disruption.
Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal have long served as production powerhouses for Hollywood studios seeking tax incentives and diverse filming locations. The Canadian Media Producers Association reports that foreign production, primarily American, generated over $6.2 billion in 2022 alone, creating thousands of jobs and supporting countless ancillary businesses from catering to equipment rental.
Trump’s tariff announcement came during a campaign rally in Michigan, where he promised to “bring Hollywood back to America” and accused foreign governments of “stealing American jobs through unfair tax breaks.” While light on implementation details, the threat alone has sent production companies scrambling to assess potential costs.
Michael Levine, an entertainment lawyer who has negotiated cross-border production deals for over two decades, believes the uncertainty itself poses immediate dangers. “Productions plan years in advance. When you introduce this level of financial unpredictability, the risk calculation changes completely. Studios may just decide it’s easier to film in Georgia or New Mexico.”
The potential fallout extends beyond direct production jobs. In Toronto’s Port Lands district, Derek Sullivan runs a specialized transportation company that moves equipment for major productions. His warehouse holds millions in specialized vehicles and gear. “We expanded last year based on production forecasts. Now we’re looking at possible layoffs if even a quarter of scheduled productions pull out.”
Historical data from the Toronto Film Office shows that during previous periods of trade tension, such as the 2018-2019 steel and aluminum tariff disputes, production companies began inserting “trade escalation clauses” into contracts, allowing for rapid relocation if costs increased substantially. These contingency plans could now be activated.
The Canadian government has responded cautiously to Trump’s statements. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who played a central role in negotiating the USMCA trade agreement that replaced NAFTA, emphasized the integrated nature of North American creative industries during a press conference Tuesday.
“The reality is that these productions create jobs on both sides of the border,” Freeland stated. “Canadian crews often work alongside American directors, producers and stars. Our tax credit system exists within the boundaries of our trade agreements.”
Legal experts remain divided on whether film and television tariffs would violate existing trade frameworks. The USMCA contains provisions protecting cultural industries, though these protections have never been tested under circumstances like those Trump has proposed.
For smaller Canadian production companies that co-produce with American partners, the tariff threat presents an existential challenge. Margot Williams, founder of Northstar Independent Films in Montreal, had been preparing to shoot a $4.2 million limited series with HBO Max next spring.
“The American partners called yesterday asking if we could potentially move production to Vermont instead of Montreal,” Williams told me as we sat in her office overlooking the St. Lawrence River. “We’d lose our Canadian tax credits if we did that, which makes the whole project financially unviable. It’s lose-lose.”
Economic analysis from the Royal Bank of Canada suggests that widespread tariffs on Canadian film production could reduce GDP by up to 0.3% annually—
