Rising separatist rhetoric in Alberta poses serious economic risks, warns ATCO CEO Nancy Southern. In a rare public statement addressing provincial politics, Southern cautioned that sovereignty talk has already begun harming investment prospects across multiple sectors.
“I’m hearing firsthand from potential investors who are hitting pause,” Southern told a Calgary business forum last week. “They’re asking if Alberta is stable enough for long-term commitments when talk of separation keeps surfacing. These aren’t hypothetical concerns – these are real dollars walking away from our province.”
Southern’s intervention comes amid renewed sovereignty discussions following Premier Danielle Smith’s Sovereignty Act implementation and increasingly strained federal-provincial relations. Her comments carry significant weight as ATCO operates critical infrastructure across Canada, employing thousands in utilities, energy, and logistics sectors.
The economic stakes couldn’t be higher. According to recent Statistics Canada data, Alberta attracted $18.6 billion in capital investment last year, supporting approximately 87,000 jobs. Investment analyst reports from RBC Capital Markets suggest uncertainty around provincial stability could put up to 22% of pending investment decisions at risk.
Political scientist Dr. Melanee Thomas from the University of Calgary sees Southern’s remarks as a watershed moment. “When major corporate leaders start publicly pushing back against separatist rhetoric, it signals serious economic consequences are already materializing,” Thomas explained in a telephone interview. “This isn’t just about politics anymore – it’s affecting boardroom decisions right now.”
Southern highlighted three specific economic dangers of separation talk. First, regulatory uncertainty scares off international capital. Second, interprovincial trade barriers would multiply exponentially. Third, sovereign debt ratings would likely face immediate downgrade, raising borrowing costs for both government and businesses.
The Alberta Chamber of Commerce echoed these concerns in their quarterly economic outlook. Chamber President Ken Kobly noted that 64% of surveyed members reported facing questions from outside partners about Alberta’s political stability. “Our businesses are spending valuable time reassuring clients and investors that yes, Alberta remains committed to Canada,” Kobly said.
On the ground, impacts vary by industry. Energy projects with decades-long investment horizons appear most vulnerable to sovereignty concerns. Meanwhile, technology startups report increasing difficulties attracting talent from other provinces amid political uncertainty.
“People forget that capital and talent are incredibly mobile today,” Southern emphasized. “They have choices, and they’re making them based partly on political stability and predictable business environments.”
Not everyone agrees with Southern’s assessment. The Alberta Institute, a provincial autonomy advocacy group, released a statement arguing greater independence would actually attract investment by allowing Alberta to create more business-friendly policies. “We’re seeing selective evidence that ignores the economic benefits of more provincial control,” said spokesperson Jordan Miller.
However, multiple economists support Southern’s concerns. Trevor Tombe, economics professor at the University of Calgary, points to tangible economic costs. “Separation uncertainty affects everything from insurance premiums to borrowing rates,” Tombe explained. “The economic literature is clear that political instability carries real costs, often between 2-4% of GDP annually in affected regions.”
Beyond immediate investment impacts, Southern raised alarm about long-term consequences for Alberta’s economic diversification efforts. “We’re working hard to build new industries beyond oil and gas, but those emerging sectors are particularly sensitive to political stability,” she said. “Tech companies and green energy investments simply go elsewhere when facing these questions.”
Several major business leaders have privately expressed similar concerns but hesitated to speak publicly for fear of political backlash. Southern’s willingness to address the issue directly marks a potential turning point in the public conversation.
The provincial government maintains that the Sovereignty Act and assertions of provincial autonomy aim to strengthen Alberta’s position within Canada, not promote separation. Premier Smith’s office responded to Southern’s comments with a statement emphasizing that “standing up for Alberta’s interests strengthens investment certainty by ensuring federal overreach doesn’t disrupt our business environment.”
But for Southern, the distinction matters little to outside investors. “The nuance between sovereignty and separation gets lost internationally,” she cautioned. “What investors hear is political conflict and uncertainty, and that’s enough to redirect their capital elsewhere.”
As Alberta navigates complex federal-provincial tensions, Southern’s intervention adds a crucial business perspective to a debate often dominated by political voices. Whether her warnings will temper separatist rhetoric remains uncertain, but they’ve clearly highlighted the tangible economic stakes that extend far beyond political symbolism.
