Canadians aren’t backing down when it comes to standing up to American trade pressure, even if it might hit their wallets. A recent Nanos Research poll revealed that 69 percent of Canadians support retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs – a striking consensus in a country often divided on economic policy.
The poll comes as the Trudeau government walks a diplomatic tightrope, choosing restraint over immediate retaliation to President Biden’s aluminum tariff hikes announced this May. While Ottawa’s approach appears cautious, average Canadians seem ready for a more confrontational stance.
“There’s something deeply Canadian about this response,” says Keith Brooks, trade analyst with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. “We’ve historically valued fairness in trade relationships, and these numbers suggest Canadians view the aluminum tariffs as fundamentally unfair.”
The surprising strength of this sentiment cuts across political divides. Support for retaliation was highest in Quebec at 76 percent – unsurprising given the province’s substantial aluminum industry – but remained strong in traditionally conservative Alberta at 64 percent.
The unified response reflects growing frustration with recurring trade tensions. Canada has weathered several rounds of U.S. tariffs in recent years, including the 2018 steel and aluminum duties that prompted $16.6 billion in Canadian countermeasures.
Mary Ng, Canada’s International Trade Minister, has maintained that the government is “exploring all options” while pursuing diplomatic channels. This measured approach contrasts with the more aggressive stance Canadians appear to favor.
“The government’s caution makes economic sense but risks appearing weak domestically,” explains Carleton University international trade professor Meredith Lilly. “Retaliatory tariffs inevitably hurt Canadian consumers and businesses that rely on American imports.”
The economic calculus is complex. Canada exported $11.2 billion in aluminum products to the U.S. in 2023, according to Statistics Canada. While retaliatory tariffs might satisfy public sentiment, they could accelerate inflation already running at 2.9 percent nationally.
For businesses caught in the crossfire, the uncertainty creates planning challenges. “We source components from both sides of the border,” says Marco Fortier, whose Montreal-based manufacturing firm employs 48 people. “Every time tariffs become a political football, we have to reconsider our entire supply chain.”
Trade experts note that Canada’s restraint might reflect recognition of the upcoming U.S. election. “There’s little appetite in Ottawa to antagonize either presidential candidate before November,” suggests Scotiabank senior economist Jean-François Perrault. “The government likely hopes this becomes a non-issue after the election.”
Public opinion appears more emotionally charged than policy-driven. When pollsters asked about potential economic consequences, support for retaliation dropped only slightly to 61 percent.
This resilient backing for a tough stance comes despite economic headwinds. Canada’s GDP growth slowed to 1.1 percent in Q1 2024, and household debt remains among the highest in developed economies.
For communities dependent on aluminum production, like Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean in Quebec, the issue transcends economics. “This isn’t just about trade policy; it’s about dignity,” says regional economic development official Christine Tremblay. “These are multi-generational industries that define who we are.”
The historical pattern suggests Canada’s muted response might be temporary. In previous trade disputes, Canadian officials have typically crafted targeted countermeasures designed to impact politically sensitive regions in the U.S.
“What’s different this time is the timing,” notes University of Toronto political economist Louis Pauly. “With both Canadian and American elections on the horizon, trade relations are even more politically charged than usual.”
For now, the gap between public sentiment and government action highlights the challenges of managing an asymmetric trade relationship. Canada sends roughly 75 percent of its exports to the United States, creating an inevitable power imbalance.
As Ottawa navigates these waters, the strong public backing for retaliation provides political cover for tougher measures if diplomatic efforts fail. Whether the government eventually matches this public appetite for confrontation remains to be seen.
The message from Canadians, however, appears clear: when it comes to trade fairness, they’re willing to pay a price to stand their ground.
