Article – The trade war that defined Donald Trump’s first term appears set for a sequel, with analysts now projecting his threatened 30% tariffs on Chinese goods will likely remain in place through most of 2025. This escalation comes as little surprise to those who’ve tracked Trump’s consistent messaging on China throughout his campaign.
“These aren’t negotiating tactics anymore. They’re policy positions that will be implemented,” explains Wei Li, senior trade policy researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The difference this time is Trump enters with experience and a team already aligned on China strategy.”
During my recent visit to the port of Los Angeles, I witnessed firsthand the anxiety rippling through America’s busiest trade gateway. Shipping companies and importers are accelerating orders to beat potential tariff deadlines, creating what port officials describe as an “artificial surge” similar to what occurred in 2018.
Containers stacked five-high crowded terminals as logistics managers scrambled to move inventory. “We’re paying premium rates to expedite everything possible,” said Marcus Chen, operations director at Pacific Import Solutions, whose business depends heavily on Chinese electronics components. “It’s déjà vu, but worse because everyone knows what’s coming.”
The economic stakes couldn’t be higher. U.S. imports from China totaled $427 billion in 2023, according to Commerce Department data. A blanket 30% tariff could transfer approximately $128 billion from American businesses and consumers to government coffers – assuming import volumes remain stable, which economists doubt.
Federal Reserve analysis of the previous trade war suggested American consumers ultimately bore between 60-80% of tariff costs through higher prices, contradicting Trump’s repeated claims that “China pays the tariffs.” The same pattern is expected this time.
Beijing’s response has been measured but pointed. “China always opposes unilateral tariffs that violate WTO rules,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Wei stated at yesterday’s press briefing. “We are prepared to protect our legitimate trade interests through proportional countermeasures.”
What’s different in this second round is China’s economic position. With domestic consumption struggling and real estate markets still reeling, Chinese officials appear reluctant to engage in an all-out trade conflict.
“Xi’s economic team faces multiple fires at home. They can’t afford a full-blown trade war right now,” notes Dr. Elaine Zhang, who directs the Transpacific Economic Forum in Brussels. “But they also can’t appear weak to domestic audiences. Expect targeted retaliation against American agricultural exports and strategically important sectors.”
During my conversation with three senior European trade officials last week in Brussels, all expressed concern about being caught in the crossfire. “We’re preparing for spillover effects,” one official told me, speaking on condition of anonymity due to diplomatic sensitivities. “If Chinese exports get diverted from American markets, Europe could face a flood of discounted goods.”
The tariff timeline appears relatively fixed. The incoming administration has signaled January implementation for an initial round of increases, with full 30% rates likely by March. Treasury officials from Trump’s transition team have privately told business groups to expect these rates to remain through at least Q3 2025.
The semiconductor industry faces particular uncertainty. Unlike in Trump’s first term, China now has more leverage in the chip supply chain despite America’s export restrictions. Applied Materials and other equipment suppliers derive substantial revenue from Chinese customers, creating potential vulnerabilities if Beijing retaliates specifically against this sector.
“We’re in a much more precarious position than in 2018,” explains Carlos Ramirez, technology supply chain analyst at GlobalData. “The interdependence is deeper, and China has built alternatives in several key areas.”
For ordinary Americans, the tariff impact will be uneven but widespread. Economists at Goldman Sachs project consumer price increases of 0.5-1.2% across affected categories, with furniture, electronics, and apparel seeing the largest jumps. This comes as inflation has finally moderated after three painful years.
Walking through Target in Arlington last weekend, I noticed Chinese-made home goods already displaying higher price tags, suggesting retailers are building in tariff expectations preemptively.
“These price increases won’t hit all at once, but they’ll filter through the economy gradually,” explains Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi. “The timing couldn’t be worse for consumers who’ve just started feeling relief at the checkout counter.”
The administration’s economic team appears to believe any price increases will be temporary and worth the strategic realignment. Larry Kudlow, expected to play a senior economic advisory role, recently argued that “short-term adjustments are necessary for long-term economic security.”
What remains unclear is whether these tariffs will actually achieve their stated goals of reducing the trade deficit and bringing manufacturing jobs back to America. Evidence from the first round suggests limited success on both fronts.
The trade deficit with China initially declined but then rebounded, while manufacturing employment saw only modest gains concentrated in specific sectors. Meanwhile, many companies simply shifted production to Vietnam, Mexico, and other countries rather than returning to the U.S.
As Washington and Beijing prepare for this next economic confrontation, the global trading system watches nervously. With the WTO already weakened and regional trade blocs strengthening, this renewed U.S.-China tension threatens to accelerate the fragmentation of global commerce into competing spheres.
For now, businesses are left planning for a year of disruption while hoping diplomatic channels might eventually prevail. But few I’ve spoken with are optimistic.
“We learned last time that hope is not a strategy,” said Chen as we watched cranes load yet another container ship bound for America. “This time, we’re planning for the worst.”
