I arrived at the Canadian Club of Toronto event just as David Frum, the Canadian-American political commentator, prepared to address a room packed with business leaders and policy wonks. The tension was palpable – Canada-U.S. relations sit at a precarious crossroads, with protectionist winds blowing stronger from Washington regardless of who wins November’s presidential election.
“The bipartisan consensus on free trade that dominated U.S. policy for decades is effectively dead,” Frum declared, his voice carrying the weight of someone who has observed American politics from both inside the corridors of power and from the analytical distance of media. “Canada must prepare for a fundamentally changed relationship with its largest trading partner.”
As I scanned the room, the nervous glances exchanged between Canadian executives confirmed what many had feared but few had publicly acknowledged: the comfortable predictability of the cross-border economic relationship is evaporating.
Frum, who served as a speechwriter for former president George W. Bush before becoming a senior editor at The Atlantic, outlined how Canada has historically navigated U.S. relations through a combination of quiet diplomacy and strategic alignment. That playbook, he argued, may no longer be sufficient.
“The traditional Canadian approach of ‘getting along by going along’ worked when U.S. policy favored openness,” Frum explained. “But when America turns inward, Canada needs to fundamentally rethink its economic security strategy.”
The numbers support his concern. Canada sends approximately 75% of its exports to the United States, according to Statistics Canada, creating an economic dependency that leaves the country vulnerable to policy shifts south of the border. Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Department reports that only about 18% of American exports go to Canada, creating a fundamental asymmetry.
This vulnerability has become increasingly apparent as both major U.S. political parties embrace elements of economic nationalism. The Biden administration has maintained many Trump-era tariffs while implementing the Inflation Reduction Act with its “Buy American” provisions. These measures have already disrupted Canadian manufacturing and resource sectors.
“Washington doesn’t wake up in the morning thinking about how to benefit Canada,” Frum remarked to knowing laughter from the audience. “This isn’t personal – it’s the natural outcome of domestic politics trumping international partnerships.”
When I spoke with Maryscott Greenwood, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council, during a coffee break, she emphasized the extent of the challenge. “The integrated supply chains built over decades are being questioned not just by politicians but by national security officials who now view economic resilience through a different lens after pandemic disruptions.”
Frum’s prescription for Canada includes diversifying trade relationships beyond the U.S., investing heavily in critical infrastructure, and developing strategic industries where Canada holds natural advantages – particularly in clean energy minerals, agricultural production, and advanced manufacturing.
“Canada needs to leverage its abundant resources and skilled workforce to become indispensable in areas where the U.S. has vulnerabilities,” he argued. “The goal should be interdependence, not dependence.”
Some attendees questioned whether this approach risked antagonizing the U.S., potentially triggering more protectionist measures. Frum dismissed these concerns with a pragmatic counterpoint.
“Americans respect strength and strategic clarity,” he said. “What they don’t respect is the perception that Canada expects special treatment without offering strategic value in return.”
This perspective aligns with recent research from the C.D. Howe Institute, which found that successful Canadian trade advocacy in Washington increasingly depends on framing Canadian interests in terms of U.S. economic and security priorities.
For Canadian businesses with U.S. exposure – which represents most of the country’s major enterprises – Frum’s message demanded immediate attention. Several executives I spoke with afterward acknowledged they were accelerating contingency planning for various U.S. policy scenarios.
Jean Charest, former Quebec premier who was in attendance, noted that provincial governments must also adapt. “The days when provinces could conduct their own parallel diplomacy with U.S. states without coordination are over,” he told me. “Canada needs a unified approach that aligns federal and provincial interests.”
Perhaps most striking was Frum’s assessment of timing. “The window for Canada to reposition itself is narrow,” he warned. “Once new trade barriers solidify into policy, they become extremely difficult to dismantle.”
The event ended with an uncomfortable recognition that Canada’s economic future requires more than incremental adjustments to a familiar relationship. It demands a fundamental reassessment of how the country positions itself in a world where its largest trading partner increasingly views economic relationships through the lens of competition rather than cooperation.
As attendees filed out, the conversation had shifted from whether Canada needs a new approach to how quickly it can develop one. For a country that has built its prosperity on a stable cross-border relationship, that represents nothing short of a paradigm shift – one that David Frum suggests can no longer be postponed.
