The proposed steel tariffs from the Trump administration would devastate thousands of Canadian manufacturing jobs, according to Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who voiced his concerns during a press conference yesterday. Ford’s statements reflect growing anxiety across the Canada-U.S. border as trade tensions escalate between the longtime allies.
“When you put a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, that’s not what neighbors do to each other,” Ford said, visibly frustrated. “It affects real people with real families who depend on these jobs to put food on the table.”
The potential impact stretches far beyond Ontario’s industrial heartland. According to Statistics Canada, approximately 22,000 Canadian workers are directly employed in steel production, with over 100,000 in steel-related manufacturing positions. The integrated nature of North American supply chains means disruptions can quickly ripple through both economies.
Speaking from Hamilton, Ontario’s steel manufacturing hub, Ford emphasized the security dimensions of the cross-border economic relationship. “We’re not just trading partners, we’re defense partners. These tariffs undermine continental security at a time when we should be strengthening it.”
I’ve spent time in steel communities across both sides of the border over the past decade. What’s striking is how similar the concerns are from Pittsburgh to Hamilton – workers worried about economic security in an increasingly volatile global market. The difference is that Canadian steel workers now face the added pressure of potentially being labeled a national security threat by their largest customer.
Economic analysts at the C.D. Howe Institute estimate that American tariffs could reduce Canadian GDP by 0.33%, representing billions in economic activity. Yet the impact on individual communities would be far more concentrated and severe.
“This isn’t just about big economic numbers,” explained Maria Rodriguez, an economist at the University of Toronto. “When a steel town loses its main industry, the effects cascade through everything from local restaurants to school funding. Recovery can take generations.”
Ford’s comments follow a pattern of increasing provincial involvement in international trade disputes, reflecting the high stakes for regional economies. Ontario ships approximately $14 billion in steel and aluminum products to the U.S. annually, with much of it integrated into complex manufacturing supply chains that cross the border multiple times.
The American justification for these tariffs – national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act – particularly stings Canadian officials. “We’ve fought alongside Americans in nearly every major conflict of the last century,” noted former Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. David MacNaughton in a recent interview. “To suggest our steel threatens U.S. security is both economically and historically absurd.”
What makes this situation particularly complex is how it affects American workers and consumers. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that previous steel tariffs cost approximately $900,000 per job saved in the American steel industry, while raising costs for steel-consuming industries that employ far more workers.
During my recent visits to Ohio and Pennsylvania, American manufacturers expressed concerns about how tariffs would increase their production costs. “We compete globally. When our steel costs more than our competitors’, we lose orders,” said Michael Brennan, who runs a medium-sized metal fabrication business near Cleveland.
The irony is that both Canadian and American steel workers face similar challenges from global overcapacity, particularly from China. Instead of addressing this common threat together, tariffs risk pitting natural allies against each other.
Ford made this point explicitly: “We should be working together to address unfair trade practices from countries that don’t play by the rules, not targeting each other’s workers.“
The situation has created unusual political alignments, with labor unions on both sides of the border opposing tariffs despite their traditional protectionist tendencies. The United Steelworkers union, which represents workers in both countries, has called for Canada to be permanently exempted from any steel tariffs.
As I watched Ford’s press conference, what struck me was how the language of economic nationalism increasingly collides with the reality of integrated economies. The steel in a typical North American vehicle crosses the border multiple times during production. Disentangling these supply chains would be economically traumatic for communities on both sides.
Whether these tariff threats materialize into policy remains uncertain. But the anxiety they generate is already affecting investment decisions and business confidence in both countries. As Premier Ford made clear, the human cost of economic uncertainty falls most heavily on the very manufacturing communities that trade policy often claims to protect.
