During my recent conversation with former U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra at a foreign policy roundtable in Ottawa, he outlined what many Canadian officials have been reluctant to publicly acknowledge – the incoming Trump administration’s economic vision might align more closely with Canada’s growth strategy than expected, despite the anxious diplomatic signaling from Prime Minister Trudeau’s government.
“President-elect Trump’s approach to North American economic integration has matured,” Hoekstra explained as we discussed potential bilateral relations. “The focus now is less about dismantling trade frameworks and more about reshoring critical industries across the continent.”
This evolving position comes as Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada governor and now economic advisor to the Liberal government, has been quietly developing Canada’s industrial strategy focused on manufacturing resilience and supply chain security – objectives that mirror Trump’s economic nationalism, albeit with different rhetoric.
The potential alignment isn’t accidental. Canadian economic planners have spent months scenario-planning for a Trump return. A senior Finance Ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, shared internal assessments showing Canada’s critical minerals strategy could become a cornerstone of bilateral cooperation rather than competition.
“There’s a calculated pivot happening in Ottawa,” notes Goldy Hyder, president of the Business Council of Canada. “Behind closed doors, Canadian executives are realizing Trump’s ‘America First’ manufacturing push creates market opportunities for Canadian suppliers if we position correctly within integrated supply chains.”
This represents a striking departure from 2017, when Trump’s first term saw tense NAFTA renegotiations and aluminum tariff battles. The difference now is Canada’s own embrace of industrial policy, with $20 billion committed to clean manufacturing initiatives and critical infrastructure – creating natural partnership opportunities despite ideological differences.
Economic data supports this potential alignment. U.S.-Canada trade recovered to record levels after pandemic disruptions, reaching $921 billion in 2023, according to Statistics Canada. Meanwhile, both countries have witnessed similar manufacturing sector challenges, with job losses to overseas competitors driving parallel policy responses focused on domestic production capacity.
“The irony is that Trump’s economic nationalism and Canada’s progressive industrial strategy share more DNA than either side wants to admit,” explained Heather Exner-Pirot, special advisor to the MacDonald-Laurier Institute. “Both prioritize domestic manufacturing, energy security, and reducing dependence on China.”
Canadian economic planners now face a delicate balancing act. Ottawa must publicly maintain its progressive economic narrative while privately adapting to Trump’s expected policy directions. This includes accelerating permitting for critical infrastructure projects and emphasizing North American energy independence – priorities that align with both Carney’s growth plans and Trump’s economic vision.
The potential cooperation extends beyond theoretical frameworks. Specific sectors primed for collaboration include critical minerals for electric vehicle manufacturing, pharmaceutical production capacity, and defense industrial cooperation – all areas where Canada has recently announced major investments.
During my visit to a newly expanded lithium processing facility near Winnipeg, CEO Martin Lessard pointed to expansion plans specifically designed with U.S. battery manufacturing in mind. “We’ve been aligning our growth strategy with potential U.S. policy shifts for months,” he acknowledged. “The political rhetoric matters less than the economic fundamentals.”
Not everyone shares this optimistic outlook. Trade unions and environmental advocates worry about a race to deregulation as Canada competes for investment. “We can’t sacrifice environmental standards or worker protections in the name of continental integration,” warns Tzeporah Berman, international program director at Stand.earth, who I spoke with at a recent climate forum.
The clearest indication of Canada’s pragmatic approach came during Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s recent speech to the Economic Club of Canada. Without mentioning Trump directly, she emphasized “working with all our continental partners” while highlighting Canada’s critical role in secure supply chains – language carefully calibrated for the coming administration.
What’s becoming increasingly evident is that Canada’s economic planners are preparing for policy continuity rather than disruption when Trump takes office. “The reality of integrated economies means ideological differences must take a backseat to practical cooperation,” noted former Canadian ambassador to the U.S. Gary Doer when we discussed transition preparations.
As Trump assembles his economic team, Canadian officials are mapping specific engagement strategies for key appointees, with particular attention to trade representatives and commerce department leadership. Ambassador Hoekstra hinted that early dialogue has already begun through unofficial channels.
For Canada’s business community, the emerging consensus favors preparation over panic. “Companies that thrived during Trump’s first term were those who understood his actual policies rather than reacting to tweets,” observed Perrin Beatty, president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, during our recent interview.
Whether this pragmatic alignment translates into stable bilateral relations remains uncertain. Tensions over immigration, defense spending, and cultural issues could still disrupt economic cooperation. However, the foundation for productive engagement appears stronger than public discourse suggests.
As I prepare to cover the transition in Washington, one thing is increasingly clear: Canada’s economic strategy under Trudeau and Carney now shares more common ground with Trump’s vision than either side publicly acknowledges – creating an unexpected but potentially beneficial alignment for North American economic integration.
