I’ve spent the past week talking with voters across Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner, where an unusual energy surrounds Monday’s federal byelection. More than 14,000 residents have already cast their ballots during advance polling – a notable surge for a typically predictable Conservative stronghold in southern Alberta.
“I’ve never seen this much interest in a byelection,” remarked Eleanor Samson, who runs a small bakery in Medicine Hat. “People are talking politics over coffee in ways they usually save for provincial races.”
The riding became vacant after former Conservative MP Glen Motz announced his retirement last November. Motz had held the seat since 2016, winning his last election in 2021 with a commanding 64% of the vote.
What makes this race worth watching isn’t whether the Conservatives will retain the seat – most political observers consider that outcome nearly certain – but rather what the voter turnout and margin of victory might signal about broader political currents flowing through Alberta.
Conservative candidate Brent Ginther, a local business owner and former police officer, faces competition from five other candidates including Rachel Harder for the People’s Party, Jocelyn Howery for the Liberals, and Gwendoline Dirk representing the NDP.
“We’re seeing shifts in how rural and small-city Albertans are engaging with federal politics,” explains Dr. Melissa Carnegie, political scientist at the University of Calgary. “Even in traditionally safe ridings, voters are showing up to send messages about specific issues that matter locally.”
Elections Canada confirmed that 14,149 voters participated in four days of advance polling, representing roughly 14% of eligible voters in the riding. By comparison, advance voting in the 2021 general election drew 18,837 people in the same riding – suggesting this byelection is generating substantial interest despite being a mid-term contest.
On a crisp Tuesday morning at a Tim Hortons in Cardston, I met with three generations of the Williams family, all planning to vote. “We’ve always been Conservative voters,” said Richard Williams, 68. “But this time we’re paying closer attention to exactly what the candidate is saying about water rights and agricultural policy.”
His daughter Jennifer nodded. “I’m still voting Conservative, but I want them to hear that we expect more attention to rural issues, not just opposition politics.”
Local concerns dominating campaign discussions include agricultural support programs, water management, healthcare access in smaller communities, and rising cost-of-living pressures that have hit rural areas particularly hard.
The governing Liberals have struggled to gain traction in southern Alberta for decades. Their candidate Howery has focused her campaign on federal investments in local infrastructure and support for families, but faces an uphill battle in a region where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity remains low.
“It’s like swimming upstream during a flood,” one Liberal volunteer told me, requesting anonymity to speak candidly. “But showing up matters, even when you know you won’t win.”
The NDP’s Dirk has similarly concentrated on healthcare accessibility and affordability issues, themes that have resonated in provincial politics but haven’t traditionally translated to federal support in the region.
Perhaps the most interesting dynamic is the People’s Party presence. Candidate Rachel Harder has been drawing attention at local forums, particularly among voters expressing dissatisfaction with what they see as insufficient Conservative opposition to Liberal policies.
“The PPC won’t win this seat, but they could pull enough support to send a message,” noted Carnegie. “Conservative strategists watch these percentages carefully.”
At a campaign event in Medicine Hat last Thursday, Ginther emphasized his local roots and understanding of regional challenges. “Ottawa needs to hear directly from the people who live and work in southern Alberta,” he told a crowd of about 75 supporters. “We need representation that understands water management isn’t just an abstract policy issue – it’s our livelihoods.”
The byelection comes amid broader tensions between Alberta and the federal government over energy policy, carbon pricing, and what many Albertans perceive as economic policies unfavorable to western interests.
According to recent provincial polling by Angus Reid Institute, 62% of Albertans believe the province receives “unfair treatment” from the federal government – sentiment that often translates into stronger Conservative support in federal contests.
What makes this particular race worth watching beyond its predictable outcome is how it might reflect evolving dynamics within conservative politics in Western Canada. The Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre has adopted a more populist tone on many issues, while the PPC continues to position itself as a further-right alternative.
“These byelections serve as temperature checks,” said Dr. Carnegie. “Even when the winner is essentially predetermined, the margins and turnout patterns tell us something about voter satisfaction with the major parties.”
Elections Canada will open polls from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. on Monday, with results expected later that evening. While the outcome seems all but certain, the messages sent through voter participation may prove more consequential than the final tally.
“In politics, how you win sometimes matters more than winning itself,” noted a veteran Conservative organizer who has worked on multiple campaigns in southern Alberta. “Strong byelection performance builds momentum heading toward the next general election.”
Meanwhile, as Eleanor Samson arranges fresh cinnamon buns in her bakery display case, she sums up what many locals seem to feel: “We know we’re not exactly a battleground riding, but we still want our concerns taken seriously in Ottawa. Showing up to vote is how we make that point.”
