As the afternoon light streamed into a bustling coffee shop in downtown Calgary, a group of voters leaned in, dissecting the latest polling numbers like hockey fans studying playoff statistics. This scene, played out across Alberta’s urban centers, reflects the mounting anticipation for what promises to be one of the province’s most consequential elections in recent memory.
The latest Angus Reid poll released Tuesday shows Premier Danielle Smith maintaining a 12-point lead over NDP leader Naheed Nenshi, despite the former Calgary mayor’s efforts to revitalize his party’s prospects across rural Alberta. The survey of 805 likely voters puts the United Conservative Party at 47 percent compared to the NDP’s 35 percent, with the margin widening significantly outside major urban centers.
“Nenshi faces the classic Alberta opposition dilemma,” explains Janet Brown, an independent pollster who’s tracked Alberta politics for over two decades. “He’s got strong support in Edmonton, competitive numbers in Calgary, but the rural gap remains a formidable challenge with just nine months until election day.”
Since assuming NDP leadership last November, Nenshi has worked to shed the party’s reputation as an urban-centric organization. His “Kitchen Tables, Not Boardrooms” tour has taken him through 28 rural communities, focusing on healthcare access, agricultural policy, and resource development – traditional UCP strongholds.
At a recent town hall in Lethbridge, Nenshi connected the dots between provincial policies and local challenges. “When emergency rooms close in rural communities, it’s not just inconvenient – it’s life-threatening,” he told the crowd of about 200 attendees. “These aren’t partisan issues, they’re Alberta issues.”
The polling suggests his message is resonating somewhat. NDP support in communities outside Edmonton and Calgary has inched up from 18 percent last spring to 24 percent today – progress, but far from the 58 percent support the UCP currently enjoys in these same regions.
Smith, meanwhile, has doubled down on her “Alberta First” messaging, recently announcing a $1.2 billion infrastructure package targeting smaller communities. The premier’s office confirmed projects including rural hospital renovations in Drumheller and expanded highway twinning near Grande Prairie.
“Premier Smith understands the unique challenges facing rural Albertans because she’s lived them,” said Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Municipal Affairs, during the announcement. “These investments reflect our commitment to ensuring prosperity reaches every corner of our province.”
Healthcare remains the top issue for voters according to the poll, with 32 percent identifying it as their primary concern. The cost of living follows at 28 percent, while energy and environment round out the top three at 18 percent.
The UCP’s internal numbers reportedly show similar trends, though party insiders speaking on background acknowledge concern about Nenshi’s personal popularity. The former mayor consistently outperforms his party by about five points on leadership metrics – a fact not lost on UCP strategists.
“Danielle Smith may lead in the horserace numbers, but her personal approval sits at 44 percent compared to Nenshi’s 49 percent,” notes political scientist Duane Bratt from Mount Royal University. “In a personality-driven campaign, that gap could prove significant.”
The Alberta Federation of Labour released its own commissioned poll last month showing a tighter race, with just an eight-point spread between the parties. AFL president Gil McGowan argues that economic anxiety is creating openings for the NDP.
“Working Albertans are feeling the squeeze from inflation without seeing corresponding wage growth,” McGowan said. “Our polling shows vulnerability for the UCP on economic management despite their pro-business messaging.”
Smith’s team has countered by emphasizing Alberta’s nation-leading economic growth and unemployment rates that have fallen to 5.8 percent – the lowest since before the 2015 oil price collapse. The Premier regularly attributes this performance to UCP policies that reduced corporate taxes and slashed regulations.
At Tim’s Diner in Red Deer, where I stopped for coffee while traveling between campaign events, the political divide was palpable. Oil worker James Metcalf, 47, expressed firm support for Smith: “She stands up for our industry when Ottawa tries pushing us around.” At the next table, nurse practitioner Sarah Johansen, 39, countered: “Healthcare is crumbling. Nenshi actually listens to frontline workers.”
This urban-rural divide has defined Alberta politics for generations, but the fault lines appear to be shifting slightly. Calgary, once reliably conservative, has become competitive territory. The Angus Reid poll shows the parties essentially tied in the city, with the UCP at 41 percent and NDP at 39 percent.
“Calgary is the kingmaker in 2025,” says pollster Marc Henry, president of ThinkHQ Public Affairs. “Edmonton goes overwhelmingly NDP, rural Alberta heavily UCP. The election will be won or lost in those Calgary swing ridings.”
The Alberta Party and other smaller entities collectively garner about 11 percent support, potentially playing spoiler in close contests. Green Party leader Jordan Wilkie has focused almost exclusively on environmental concerns, while the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition continues pushing from Smith’s right flank on sovereignty issues.
With nine months until Election Day, both major parties are building war chests for what’s expected to be Alberta’s most expensive campaign ever. First quarter fundraising figures released by Elections Alberta showed the UCP raised $2.8 million compared to the NDP’s $2.3 million – both record amounts for non-election periods.
The road to May 2025 promises more intensive campaigning as Nenshi works to close the gap while Smith defends her government’s record. As one veteran campaign strategist put it to me over coffee: “In Alberta politics, nine months is several lifetimes. This race is far from over.”
The real question remains whether Nenshi can translate his personal appeal into broader party support, particularly in areas where the NDP has historically struggled. For now, Smith maintains the advantage – but in a province known for political earthquakes, nothing is certain until the ballots are counted.
