The wide dirt road cuts across a golden prairie field just east of Medicine Hat, where a sea of solar panels used to glint in the morning sun. Today, the land sits empty, with little evidence of Elemental Energy’s once-promising $25 million investment. When I visited in March, local coffee shop owner Martina Rasmussen pointed toward the horizon with a weathered hand.
“They started clearing the land last year. Then everything just… stopped,” she said, her voice carrying a note of resignation familiar to many in rural Alberta these days.
What happened here mirrors a larger story unfolding across the province. Alberta, once Canada’s renewable energy success story, now faces a dramatic shift in investor confidence following policy changes that have sent shockwaves through the green energy sector.
A report released yesterday by the Pembina Institute reveals the troubling extent of this uncertainty. The analysis indicates that Alberta has lost approximately $5 billion in renewable energy investments since the provincial government implemented a seven-month moratorium on new projects last August, followed by restrictive new rules on development.
“We’re witnessing an unprecedented exodus of capital,” explains Saeed Mohammed, the report’s lead author and senior analyst at Pembina. “Companies that were eager to build in Alberta just 18 months ago are now redirecting their investments to Saskatchewan, Ontario, and increasingly to U.S. states offering stable policy environments.”
The numbers tell a stark story. Before the moratorium, Alberta led the country with over 40 major renewable projects in development. Today, only seven remain active, with most others either canceled or moved to different jurisdictions.
This shift represents more than just statistical change. In Carbon County, where a 200-megawatt wind farm was canceled in December, Mayor Elaine Sorensen describes the community impact: “We lost about 30 permanent jobs that would have supported young families, plus nearly $2 million in annual municipal tax revenue that would have funded our new community center and road improvements.”
What makes Alberta’s situation particularly striking is how quickly things changed. Between 2019 and 2022, the province attracted over $7 billion in renewable energy investments, according to data from Natural Resources Canada. This boom created more than 5,000 construction jobs and established Alberta as a continental leader in market-based renewable development.
The province achieved this without subsidies, instead leveraging its deregulated electricity market and abundant natural resources. Alberta Energy statistics show the province receives 25% more solar radiation than Germany, Europe’s solar leader, and its southern regions experience wind patterns ideal for generation.
But the government’s concerns about agricultural land use, visual impacts, and system reliability led to last year’s moratorium and subsequent regulations that many industry participants describe as prohibitive.
“The new rules effectively eliminate about 80% of suitable development areas,” said Jordanna Branscombe, VP of Policy at the Canadian Renewable Energy Association, when I interviewed her at their Calgary office. “We understand the need for balanced regulation, but these restrictions go far beyond what’s necessary for responsible development.”
For some communities, the policy reversal feels particularly bitter. Near Vulcan, the Swift Current First Nation had partnered with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners on a 300-megawatt wind project that promised $50 million in revenue sharing over 30 years.
“This represented economic sovereignty for our people,” Chief Robert Tallfeathers told me when I visited the nation’s offices in February. “We spent three years developing this project, conducting wildlife studies and community consultations. Now our partners have moved their investment to Montana.”
Environment and Climate Change Canada research indicates that Alberta’s electricity system remains among Canada’s most carbon-intensive, with coal and natural gas generating approximately 82% of the province’s electricity. The province had been on track to dramatically reduce this figure through renewable expansion.
The government defends its approach, with Energy Minister Brian Jean stating in a recent press release that “Alberta remains committed to responsible energy development that balances environmental goals with land preservation and reliability.” Ministry officials point to newly approved natural gas plants as evidence the province is still attracting energy investment.
However, economists warn that the policy uncertainty extends beyond just the renewable sector. A recent University of Calgary School of Public Policy paper suggests that regulatory instability in any energy sector increases risk premiums for all Alberta investments.
“When governments make sudden, dramatic policy shifts, investors take notice across all sectors,” explains Dr. Jennifer Winter, the paper’s author. “It’s not just about these specific projects—it’s about whether Alberta can be trusted to maintain stable investment conditions.”
For many rural communities, the debate transcends politics. In Taber County, fourth-generation farmer William Jacobson had leased a portion of his drought-affected land for a solar installation that would have provided stable income during increasingly unpredictable growing seasons.
“This wasn’t about being green or anything political,” Jacobson said as we walked his parched fields last month. “It was about keeping the farm viable for my kids. Now we’re back to hoping for rain and praying crop insurance covers our losses.”
As the afternoon sun stretches shadows across Medicine Hat’s main street, Rasmussen locks up her coffee shop and offers a final thought: “Alberta has always been about energy. We’ve got so much sunshine and wind here—it seems crazy not to use it. But I guess we’re back to waiting for the next boom… whatever that might be.”
