The mining world trembled last week as Anglo American’s board rejected a US$39-billion takeover offer from BHP Group, countering with its own plan that would see the company split into three separate entities. This dramatic corporate chess game comes just months after Anglo walked away from its attempted acquisition of Canadian mining giant Teck Resources.
For Canadian investors and industry watchers, this latest development represents yet another seismic shift in a sector that’s rapidly consolidating amid the global race for critical minerals and energy transition metals.
“What we’re witnessing is the mining equivalent of musical chairs,” explains mining analyst Emma Richardson at RBC Capital Markets. “Companies are positioning themselves for a future where copper, nickel, and other transition metals become the new oil.”
The failed Anglo-Teck deal from 2023 still reverberates through Canada’s mining landscape. Teck ultimately rejected Anglo’s advances and instead proceeded with its own restructuring, separating its metallurgical coal business (now Elk Valley Resources) from its base metals operations.
This defensive move by Teck represents a growing trend among Canadian resource companies: strategic restructuring to preserve domestic ownership while maximizing shareholder value. The federal government has made it clear that Canadian mining assets, particularly those involving critical minerals, are increasingly viewed through a national security lens.
One mining executive who requested anonymity put it bluntly: “Ottawa doesn’t want to see Canadian mining champions absorbed by foreign conglomerates, especially when these resources are essential to future economic competitiveness.”
The numbers tell a compelling story. According to Natural Resources Canada, the country holds some of the world’s largest reserves of potash, uranium, cobalt, and rare earth elements – materials essential for everything from electric vehicle batteries to renewable energy infrastructure. The estimated value of these untapped resources exceeds $340 billion.
For everyday Canadians, these corporate maneuvers might seem distant from kitchen table concerns, but the implications stretch far beyond Bay Street. Pension funds like CPP Investments and Ontario Teachers’ hold significant positions in mining companies, meaning retirement savings are directly impacted by these industry reshufflings.
Moreover, communities across northern Ontario, British Columbia, and other resource-rich regions depend on mining operations for employment and economic stability. In Thunder Bay, for instance, mining sector jobs pay an average of 67% more than the regional median income, according to Statistics Canada data.
What makes the current wave of mining consolidation different from previous cycles is the climate context. As Mark Cutifani, former CEO of Anglo American, noted in a recent Financial Times interview, “The energy transition has fundamentally altered the strategic value of certain mineral deposits. Companies are no longer just acquiring assets – they’re acquiring positions in the future economy.”
The BHP pursuit of Anglo represents this new reality. If successful, the combined entity would become the world’s most dominant copper producer at precisely the moment when copper demand is projected to double by 2035, according to Goldman Sachs research.
For Teck Resources, having rebuffed Anglo’s advances, the path forward involves doubling down on copper production while benefiting from the separation of its coal business. The company’s Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 project in Chile represents one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper resources, positioning Teck to remain an independent Canadian champion in the critical minerals space.
Industry observers note that regulatory scrutiny of mining mergers has intensified globally. The Canadian government amended the Investment Canada Act in 2023 to enhance its ability to review foreign acquisitions in critical minerals. Similarly, both the EU and US have established frameworks to ensure domestic access to strategic resources.
“We’re entering an era where mining assets are viewed through both economic and national security lenses,” explains Victoria Miller, resources policy researcher at the University of British Columbia. “The rejected Anglo-Teck deal and now the BHP-Anglo situation exemplify how complex these transactions have become.”
For investors watching from the sidelines, the key question remains: who will emerge as the winners in this global reshuffling? Canadian pension funds and institutional investors have been quietly increasing their mining exposures, particularly to companies with strong environmental credentials and exposure to energy transition metals.
Meanwhile, retail investors looking for exposure to the sector might consider the broader implications rather than trying to predict specific merger outcomes. ETFs focused on critical minerals and clean energy transition have seen inflows increase by 78% over the past year, according to BMO Global Asset Management.
As Anglo American weighs its options against BHP’s approach, the ghost of the failed Teck acquisition serves as a reminder that in today’s mining landscape, national interests, shareholder value, and climate imperatives create a complex equation that defies simple solutions.
For Canadian mining, maintaining independence while accessing global capital remains the delicate balance to strike. Whether through corporate restructuring, strategic partnerships, or selective asset sales, the playbook written by Teck Resources may well become the template for other Canadian resource companies facing similar pressures.
The chess game continues, with billions of dollars and Canada’s position in the future resource economy hanging in the balance.
