As storm clouds gather over British Columbia’s export-dependent economy, businesses across the province are scrambling to assess the potential damage from Donald Trump’s promised 35 percent tariffs on Canadian goods. The tariff threat has sent shock waves through multiple sectors, from lumber mills in the Interior to tech startups in Vancouver.
“We’ve survived softwood lumber disputes before, but this is different,” says Harjit Singh, who operates a third-generation sawmill in Quesnel. “A blanket 35 percent would be catastrophic—we’re talking about potential layoffs of 30 to 40 percent of our workforce.”
The numbers paint a stark picture. British Columbia exported approximately CAD $20.8 billion in goods to the United States in 2023, representing nearly half the province’s total exports, according to Statistics Canada. Industries particularly vulnerable include forestry products ($5.2 billion), metals and minerals ($4.6 billion), and technology services ($3.1 billion).
Provincial Economic Minister Grace Wong has initiated emergency consultations with industry leaders. “We’re working on contingency plans,” she told me during a phone interview from Victoria. “But let’s be clear—these tariffs would impact everyday British Columbians, not just corporate balance sheets.”
The ripple effects could extend far beyond the obvious sectors. Tourism, which depends heavily on American visitors, could face reciprocal travel reluctance. The film industry, which brings approximately $3.6 billion annually to the province according to Creative BC, might see productions relocate if economic conditions deteriorate.
Several major American corporations with Canadian supply chains have already begun reassessing their relationships with British Columbia vendors. Microsoft, which employs over 1,700 people in Vancouver, has reportedly begun scenario planning that includes potentially shifting some operations.
“This isn’t just about lost revenue,” explains Dr. Eleanor Chang, an economist at the University of British Columbia. “It’s about how these tariffs could fundamentally alter cross-border business relationships that have taken decades to build. Once broken, these supply chains may never fully recover.”
Some sectors are better positioned than others. Clean energy companies like Ballard Power Systems have diversified global markets, while agriculture producers who primarily serve domestic markets may face less direct impact. However, the interconnected nature of the BC economy means few businesses would emerge unscathed.
In Richmond’s industrial district, Nathan Williams oversees a warehouse where electric vehicle components are assembled before shipping to California. “We’re looking at alternative markets in Europe and Asia, but realistically, it takes years to establish those relationships. In the meantime, we’re talking about survival.”
First Nations communities, many of which have built economic development strategies around resource sectors, face particular vulnerability. The Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council on Vancouver Island has called for federal support measures to protect Indigenous businesses from tariff fallout.
Premier David Eby has urged Ottawa to prepare targeted support packages. “We can’t wait until these tariffs hit to respond,” he said during a press conference last week. “Federal contingency funds must be ready to deploy the moment they’re needed.”
Some companies are exploring creative workarounds. Vancouver-based Modo Furniture has begun discussions with potential manufacturing partners in Mexico, exploring whether components could be assembled there to circumvent potential tariffs before entering the U.S. market.
The uncertainty has already impacted investment. Three major forestry modernization projects worth over $250 million have been placed on indefinite hold, according to the BC Council of Forest Industries. The Vancouver Economic Commission reports that venture capital flowing to local startups dropped 22% in the second quarter compared to last year.
“The mere threat of these tariffs is already causing damage,” notes Janet Hardie, Director of the Surrey Board of Trade. “Companies delay expansions, hold off on hiring, and postpone equipment purchases when facing this kind of uncertainty.”
Labor unions across British Columbia have begun preparing their members for potential disruptions. “We’re working with employers on contingency plans, but we’re also making sure workers understand their rights if layoffs occur,” says Manuel Cortez of United Steelworkers Local 2009, which represents workers across multiple export-oriented industries.
The provincial government has established a cross-ministerial task force to coordinate response efforts, but many business leaders believe only federal action can truly mitigate the impact. Ottawa has remained cautious in its public statements, emphasizing ongoing diplomatic efforts while avoiding specific commitments on support packages.
For now, British Columbians can only watch and wait as economic forecasts grow increasingly uncertain. As Singh from the Quesnel sawmill puts it: “We’ve weathered tough times before, but this time feels different. The entire rules of the game might be changing.”
