The sky hung low over the shuttered paper mill as I traced the edge of the Fraser River last Tuesday. Once a cornerstone of Prince George’s economy, the facility sits dormant now—a stark monument to both economic transition and climate policy realities that have rippled through countless resource-dependent communities across Canada.
“We’ve been hearing promises about just transition for almost a decade,” said Marjorie Innis, a former mill worker who now advocates for displaced resource workers. “But the reality on the ground? Most families are still waiting for those green jobs to materialize.“
This disconnect between climate rhetoric and economic reality cuts to the heart of Canada’s faltering emissions reduction strategy. According to new analysis from the Canadian Climate Institute released yesterday, Canada is significantly off-track to meet its 2030 target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels.
The report confirms what many environmental experts have been warning: despite ambitious commitments made by the Liberal government since 2015, Canada’s actual emissions have decreased by only 8.4% since 2005—a pace that makes achieving the 2030 target mathematically improbable without drastic new measures.
“The fundamental issue isn’t a lack of targets or promises,” explained Dr. Katherine Richardson, climate economist at the University of British Columbia. “It’s that implementation has been consistently delayed or watered down when industry pushback occurs. The government announces policies but often fails to follow through with the regulatory teeth needed to make them effective.“
The numbers paint a troubling picture. Environment and Climate Change Canada’s own projections suggest that even with all currently announced policies fully implemented—which rarely happens—Canada would still miss its 2030 target by approximately 20-25%.
For communities like Prince George, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The region has endured dramatic job losses in forestry while simultaneously facing increasingly severe climate impacts, including record-breaking wildfire seasons that have destroyed homes and forced multiple evacuations since 2017.
Walking through Downtown Eastside Vancouver last month, I met Jamie Thomas, a climate refugee of sorts who relocated after his small interior B.C. community faced three major wildfires in five years.
“I didn’t leave because I wanted to,” Thomas told me, gesturing to the room in the subsidized housing building he now calls home. “The fires kept coming back worse each year. My respiratory issues got so bad I couldn’t stay. Meanwhile, we keep hearing about climate targets while watching nothing really change.“
The shortfall in Canada’s climate progress can be traced to several factors. Environment Canada data shows transportation emissions have actually increased since 2005, while oil and gas extraction emissions have grown by approximately 20%—offsetting progress made in electricity generation and other sectors.
“What we’re witnessing is a fundamental contradiction in Canadian climate policy,” said Erin Wallace, policy director at Climate Action Network Canada. “The government commits to emissions reductions while simultaneously approving new fossil fuel infrastructure and expansion projects that make those targets increasingly unattainable.”
The Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development’s audit released earlier this year was particularly scathing, noting that Canada has missed every climate target it has ever set. The report highlighted “significant weaknesses in policy design” and “insufficient monitoring and enforcement mechanisms.”
Indigenous communities have been especially affected by both climate impacts and the stop-start nature of Canada’s environmental policies. In northern Manitoba, Cree Elder Joseph Beardy described watching traditional hunting grounds transform: “The seasons aren’t predictable anymore. The ice forms later, breaks earlier. Animals we’ve hunted for generations are disappearing or changing their patterns.”
Beardy’s community was initially hopeful about federal promises to include Indigenous knowledge in climate planning, but he says implementation has been superficial at best. “They invite us to meetings, take notes, and then we rarely see our concerns reflected in the actual policies.”
The federal government maintains that Canada’s emissions trajectory is improving. In a statement, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault emphasized that “without policies implemented since 2015, emissions would be significantly higher today” and pointed to the carbon pricing system as evidence of Canada’s climate leadership.
However, both independent analysis from the Pembina Institute and internal government modeling suggest that the carbon pricing system—while important—has been insufficient on its own, particularly as implementation has been uneven across provinces and faced multiple court challenges.
Policy experts point to several critical failures in Canada’s approach. First, emissions-intensive industries have received significant carve-outs and exemptions from climate policies. Second, promised regulations in key sectors have faced repeated delays. Finally, policies have often been announced without sufficient implementation funding or enforcement mechanisms.
Back in Prince George, community leaders are attempting to chart their own path forward despite federal policy shortcomings. The city recently launched a climate resilience initiative combining adaptation measures with economic development focused on sustainable forestry practices and renewable energy.
“We can’t afford to wait for Ottawa to get its act together,” said City Councillor Wei Chen. “Our community is already living the climate emergency, so we’re trying to build solutions from the ground up.“
As Canada heads toward the next federal election, climate policy effectiveness will likely face increased scrutiny. Recent polling by Abacus Data shows that while 68% of Canadians support strong climate action, only 23% believe the current government has made meaningful progress.
For communities and individuals across Canada—from mill workers in Prince George to climate migrants in Vancouver to Indigenous elders in Manitoba—the failure to align climate rhetoric with measurable results isn’t just a policy issue. It’s increasingly becoming a question of trust in government’s ability to address the defining challenge of our time.
