The diplomatic rounds in Ottawa last week took a surprising turn when two European defense ministers arrived with an unusual proposal: urging Canada to join a submarine procurement partnership with Germany and Norway.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and his Norwegian counterpart Bjørn Arild Gram pitched the collaboration during meetings with Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair. The proposal represents a potential solution to Canada’s aging submarine fleet crisis – the four Victoria-class submarines purchased second-hand from Britain in the 1990s are approaching the end of their operational lives.
“We’ve invited Canada to join our submarine cooperation,” Pistorius told reporters following the high-level talks. “They have not yet decided, but I think it would be a great advantage for all three nations.”
The proposed partnership would involve joint procurement of Type 212CD submarines, advanced diesel-electric vessels designed by German manufacturer ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems. Norway and Germany signed a $5.7 billion contract in 2021 for six of these submarines – four for Norway and two for Germany – with deliveries expected between 2029 and 2035.
I spoke with Marcus Hellyer, defense economics analyst at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, who explained the potential benefits. “Joining an existing program offers economies of scale and potentially faster delivery than developing a bespoke solution,” Hellyer said. “The Type 212CD represents cutting-edge conventional submarine technology with air-independent propulsion that would significantly upgrade Canada’s capabilities.”
The Royal Canadian Navy has struggled to maintain its submarine capabilities. A recent report obtained through access to information requests revealed that only one of Canada’s four submarines is currently operational. The Victoria-class fleet has faced persistent maintenance challenges and limited availability throughout their service lives.
Defense analyst David Perry from the Canadian Global Affairs Institute highlighted the urgency of the situation in our conversation last week. “The Victoria-class submarines are approaching the end of their useful life, and Canada needs to make decisions now if it wants to maintain an underwater capability,” Perry noted. “The procurement process for complex naval platforms typically takes 15-20 years from concept to delivery.”
The proposal comes amid growing concerns about increased Russian naval activity in the Arctic and North Atlantic – areas of strategic importance to all three potential partners. The Canadian Armed Forces have documented a significant uptick in Russian submarine operations near Canadian waters in recent years, according to documents reviewed for this story.
Blair acknowledged the proposal but remained noncommittal. “We’re exploring all options to ensure Canada maintains its underwater capabilities,” he stated. “The German-Norwegian proposal is interesting and will be evaluated alongside other possibilities.”
Canadian defense officials have been examining submarine replacement options since 2017 under the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project. The Department of National Defence has earmarked between $15 billion and $20 billion for the eventual replacement program, though no formal funding has been allocated.
The Type 212CD submarines offer several features potentially attractive for Canadian requirements. They can operate effectively in shallow coastal waters and deep ocean environments. Their air-independent propulsion system allows them to remain submerged for weeks without surfacing – a crucial capability for Arctic operations where ice cover can prevent submarines from reaching the surface.
Rob Huebert, associate professor at the University of Calgary and Arctic security expert, emphasized the strategic importance of maintaining submarine capabilities. “Submarines provide crucial underwater domain awareness and are essential for sovereignty operations,” Huebert told me. “They’re one of the few platforms that can operate effectively under Arctic ice.”
The international collaboration could also strengthen NATO interoperability at a time when the alliance faces growing challenges on its eastern and northern flanks. Norway’s Gram emphasized this point during the Ottawa meetings. “This is about strengthening the alliance’s collective deterrence and defense capabilities,” he said.
Industrial benefits would be another consideration for Canada. The German-Norwegian agreement includes significant technology transfer and industrial participation arrangements. Whether similar benefits would extend to Canada remains unclear, but Canadian shipyards and defense contractors could potentially secure work packages under a trilateral arrangement.
Not everyone supports submarine procurement, however. Critics like Stewart Webb, defense analyst with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, question the high costs involved. “The lifecycle costs of maintaining submarines are enormous,” Webb said in a recent interview. “Canada needs to carefully consider whether submarines deliver sufficient strategic value to justify such investment.”
The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated in 2021 that replacing the Victoria-class submarines could cost between $25 billion and $30 billion over their full lifecycle – significantly higher than initial procurement figures.
The government faces mounting pressure to make a decision. With the Victoria-class submarines expected to reach their end of service life between 2035 and 2040, the window for initiating a replacement program is narrowing given typical procurement timelines.
Other potential options for Canada include partnering with the United States, France, or pursuing a wholly domestic design. Each approach carries different implications for cost, schedule, capability, and industrial benefits.
As Arctic waters become increasingly contested and accessible due to climate change, underwater surveillance capabilities grow more crucial for Canadian sovereignty. The question facing policymakers isn’t just which submarines to buy, but whether Canada can afford not to maintain its underwater presence.
For now, the ball remains in Canada’s court as defense officials weigh the German-Norwegian proposal against other options for maintaining the country’s submarine capabilities into the middle of this century.
