I stepped onto the windswept construction site at Kitimat, where steel and concrete rise against a backdrop of coastal mountains. The scale of LNG Canada’s export terminal is genuinely breathtaking – a $40 billion project transforming this northern British Columbia town into what could become Canada’s gateway to global energy markets.
“What you’re seeing is just the beginning,” says Jason Klein, CEO of LNG Canada, as we walk the perimeter of what will soon be Canada’s first major liquefied natural gas export facility. “This is phase one, but we’re already looking at what comes next.”
Klein’s forecast for Canadian LNG exports is remarkably optimistic. During our conversation at the company’s Vancouver headquarters last week, he outlined how Canada could become a significant player in global LNG markets, potentially shipping up to 40 million tonnes annually by 2030 – a bold prediction considering Canada currently exports no LNG at all.
The numbers tell a compelling story. Phase one of LNG Canada’s project, now over 85% complete, will export 14 million tonnes per year when operational in 2025. Cedar LNG, an Indigenous-led project nearby, plans to add another 3 million tonnes. Phase two of LNG Canada could double their capacity, while other proposals like Woodfibre LNG near Squamish would add still more.
“The global market is signaling it needs this supply,” Klein explains. “Canadian LNG has distinct advantages – our proximity to Asian markets cuts shipping time nearly in half compared to Gulf Coast suppliers.”
What makes this forecast particularly significant is its timing. Europe’s scramble for energy security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created unprecedented demand, with countries like Germany building LNG import terminals at record speed. Meanwhile, Asian economies continue transitioning from coal to cleaner-burning natural gas.
The International Energy Agency projects global LNG demand could increase by 25% by 2030. A Natural Resources Canada report suggests Canadian gas could displace higher-emission fuels in international markets, potentially creating a net emissions benefit despite concerns from environmental groups about domestic extraction impacts.
For coastal First Nations like the Haisla, who partnered on Cedar LNG, these projects represent something beyond export statistics – they offer economic sovereignty.
“This isn’t just about royalties,” Crystal Smith, Chief Councillor of the Haisla Nation, told me during my last visit to the region. “It’s about creating economic independence while maintaining environmental stewardship. We’re proving Indigenous communities can lead major infrastructure development.”
The provincial government appears to share Klein’s optimism. Premier David Eby, despite earlier skepticism about LNG development, has increasingly supported these projects, particularly those with meaningful Indigenous partnerships.
But significant challenges remain. Climate advocates argue Canada cannot expand fossil fuel infrastructure while meeting climate commitments. The Pembina Institute calculates that LNG Canada alone could account for nearly 10% of B.C.’s emissions by 2030, potentially undermining provincial climate targets.
Regulatory hurdles also persist. While Klein praises recent federal tax incentives that helped LNG Canada reach its final investment decision, he notes that other jurisdictions move projects from concept to construction far faster.
“Australia built multiple export facilities while we were still in the approval process,” Klein notes. “If Canada truly wants to capture this opportunity, the regulatory framework needs to provide more certainty.”
There’s also fierce global competition. Qatar recently announced a massive expansion of its LNG facilities. U.S. exporters continue building terminals along the Gulf Coast. Even with Canada’s geographic advantages for serving Asia, the window of opportunity isn’t indefinite.
I’ve been reporting on energy development in northern B.C. for nearly a decade, and what strikes me most is how the conversation has evolved. Communities once firmly divided over pipelines and terminals now often focus on how – not whether – development proceeds.
In Kitimat’s downtown, I spoke with several residents who described the project’s transformative economic impact. Housing prices have risen sharply. Local businesses thrive serving the thousands of workers. Training programs have created pathways to skilled trades for local youth, including many from Indigenous communities.
“Five years ago, my son would have had to leave to find good work,” says Marianne Weston, whose family has lived in Kitimat for generations. “Now he’s apprenticing as an electrician right here.”
The Canada Energy Regulator estimates the country has over 1,200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources – enough to maintain current production for well over a century. The question is how much should be exported, and whether LNG truly serves as the “transition fuel” its proponents claim.
Environmental assessments of LNG Canada acknowledge its significant carbon footprint – approximately 4 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent annually. The company counters that its facility will be among the world’s lowest-emission LNG plants, using hydroelectric power for much of its operations.
What’s clear from spending time in these communities is that local support often hinges on environmental protection. When I visited the Coastal GasLink pipeline route last spring, I spoke with Wet’suwet’en community members both supporting and opposing the project. Their perspectives rarely fit neat pro/anti development categories, instead focusing on specific environmental safeguards and meaningful economic inclusion.
As Canada potentially emerges as a major LNG exporter, these nuanced conversations become increasingly important. Klein’s forecast for 40 million tonnes of LNG exports by 2030 represents not just infrastructure and market share, but a fundamental shift in Canada’s role in global energy markets.
Whether his prediction proves accurate will depend on factors ranging from global gas prices to climate policy and Indigenous partnerships. What’s undeniable is that the massive facility taking shape in Kitimat represents Canada’s most significant entry yet into the global LNG trade – and possibly just the beginning of a much larger energy export story.
