As the summer heat fades into autumn chill, Canadian small business owners aren’t just planning for holiday sales—they’re preparing contingency plans for a potential Canada Post disruption that could derail their busiest season.
With collective bargaining deadlines approaching between Canada Post and two major unions representing nearly 55,000 workers, the country’s entrepreneurs are experiencing an unwelcome sense of déjà vu. Many still remember scrambling during previous postal disruptions in 2018 and 2016, and they’re determined not to be caught flat-footed this time.
“We’re still recovering from pandemic setbacks, and now this,” says Maya Choudhari, who runs a Toronto-based artisanal jewelry business that ships nationwide. “About 40% of my annual revenue comes from October through December. I simply can’t afford shipping problems during peak season.”
The Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) and the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) are negotiating with Canada Post over issues including wages, working conditions, and job security. While talks continue, a strike or lockout remains possible if agreements aren’t reached.
For Canada’s small business community—especially e-commerce retailers, subscription services, and rural enterprises—postal reliability isn’t just convenient; it’s existential. The potential disruption hits at a particularly vulnerable moment for many businesses still navigating inflation, supply chain challenges, and changing consumer habits.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) reports that 78% of small businesses rely significantly on Canada Post for outgoing shipments, document delivery, or receiving payments and supplies. This dependency is even higher among rural businesses, where alternative shipping options are limited or prohibitively expensive.
“During the last postal disruption, we saw shipping costs increase by 200% for some rural businesses,” explains Dan Kelly, president of CFIB. “Many smaller operations simply don’t have the margins to absorb those kinds of increases, especially with inflation already squeezing profits.”
While Canada’s shipping landscape has evolved since previous postal disruptions, with more courier options and delivery technology available, many alternatives remain impractical for smaller operations.
Sarah Thornton, who runs a specialty food subscription box business from her home in New Brunswick, has spent recent weeks researching backup shipping methods. “The private courier rates I’ve been quoted would basically eliminate my profit margins, and some won’t even deliver to certain remote areas my customers live in,” she explains.
This reality has pushed business owners like Thornton to explore creative adaptations. Some are incentivizing local pickup options, consolidating shipments to reduce frequency, or temporarily scaling back product offerings to focus on higher-margin items that can absorb increased shipping costs.
Technology platforms are also stepping into the void. Shopify, which powers many Canadian e-commerce businesses, has published shipping contingency guidance for merchants and expanded its fulfillment partnerships to offer more options. Meanwhile, logistics startups are seizing the opportunity to court small businesses with flexible solutions designed specifically for disruption periods.
“We’ve been working to establish relationships with regional courier services across different provinces,” says Raj Patil, founder of a Vancouver gift box company. “It’s more complex to manage multiple shipping partners, but spreading the risk feels necessary right now.”
The federal government has historically been reluctant to intervene in Canada Post labor disputes until significant economic impact occurs. However, with businesses still recovering from pandemic challenges and the crucial holiday season approaching, some industry groups are advocating for earlier intervention if needed.
Consumer behavior adds another layer of complexity. A survey by RetailCouncil.ca found that 64% of online shoppers might avoid retailers who can’t guarantee holiday delivery dates. This puts additional pressure on small businesses to communicate clearly about potential disruptions and offer viable alternatives.
Financial institutions have noted the potential economic ripple effects. TD Economics estimates that a prolonged postal disruption could reduce GDP by up to 0.25% in the affected quarter, with disproportionate impacts on remote communities and small businesses.
Some entrepreneurs see this challenge as yet another push toward business model evolution. “Each time we face a shipping crisis, it accelerates our digital transformation,” notes Toronto bookseller Jamie Kelson. “We’ve developed a robust e-book and audiobook offering alongside our physical book sales precisely because of previous delivery uncertainties.”
For consumers concerned about supporting small businesses during potential disruptions, experts recommend shopping early, considering digital gift options where possible, and checking whether favorite local businesses offer in-person pickup options.
Meanwhile, as postal workers and Canada Post continue negotiations, the nation’s entrepreneurs are doing what they’ve become increasingly skilled at—preparing for disruption while hoping for the best.
“We survived COVID, supply chain nightmares, and inflation,” reflects Choudhari. “A postal strike isn’t going to break us either, but it sure would be nice to catch a break.”
