The federal public service stands at a crossroads. With the Treasury Board’s directive to slash budgets by up to 15 percent looming over departments, questions about who will bear the brunt of these cuts have become increasingly urgent—particularly for equity-seeking groups who have historically fought for their place in government corridors.
Last week, the Treasury Board of Canada released its annual Employment Equity in the Public Service report, offering a critical snapshot of diversity within federal ranks before the expected workforce reductions take effect. The timing couldn’t be more significant, creating what many observers call a “baseline moment” to measure the impact of coming cuts against.
“This report essentially gives us our ‘before’ picture,” said Dr. Melissa Chen, public administration professor at Carleton University. “When departments start implementing reductions, we’ll have concrete data to determine whether the cuts disproportionately affect women, Indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, or visible minorities.”
The report reveals meaningful progress alongside persistent challenges. Women now represent 56.4 percent of the federal workforce—a historic high—though their representation thins significantly at executive levels. Indigenous employees comprise 5.2 percent of public servants, exceeding their workforce availability of 4 percent, while persons with disabilities make up 9.3 percent of employees, surpassing their 9 percent availability target.
Visible minorities, at 18.9 percent of the public service, remain slightly below their workforce availability of 19.3 percent, though their numbers have steadily increased over the past five years.
Karen Mohammed, president of the Federal Black Employees Caucus, expressed cautious optimism about the figures but warned about the potential vulnerability of equity-seeking groups during workforce reductions.
“Progress has been incremental and hard-fought,” Mohammed told me during a phone interview from her Ottawa office. “When cuts come, the ‘last in, first out’ approach often disproportionately impacts those who’ve most recently gained access to these institutions. We need guarantees that budget measures won’t undo decades of equity work.”
The Treasury Board’s analysis acknowledges this concern, stating that “departments will be expected to conduct Gender-based Analysis Plus assessments of any workforce adjustment plans.” Yet critics question whether these assessments will have teeth when financial pressures mount.
At a community town hall in Winnipeg last month, I witnessed firsthand the anxiety among federal workers from equity-seeking groups. Marlene Thunder, an Indigenous policy analyst with Service Canada, voiced what many felt: “We’re finally getting our foot in the door, only to worry it might slam shut again.”
Treasury Board President Anita Anand has publicly committed to preserving diversity gains while implementing efficiency measures. “The strength of our public service lies in its diversity,” Anand said in a statement accompanying the report. “We remain committed to building an inclusive workforce that reflects the Canadians we serve.”
Yet skepticism runs deep, particularly given historical patterns. During the 2011-2015 federal workforce reductions under the Harper government, research by the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada found that visible minority scientists and professionals were disproportionately affected by job cuts.
“There’s institutional memory here,” explained Jean-Philippe Turgeon, a labour relations specialist with the Public Service Alliance of Canada. “When departments face budget pressure, equity considerations often become secondary to financial targets.”
The report highlights several departments making notable progress. The Canada Revenue Agency has increased its representation of persons with disabilities to 11.8 percent, while Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada leads in visible minority representation at 31.4 percent.
Conversely, certain technical and security-focused departments continue to struggle with diversity benchmarks. The Communications Security Establishment, for instance, reports just 14.6 percent visible minority representation despite being headquartered in diverse Ottawa.
Regional disparities also emerge in the data. Atlantic Canada offices show stronger Indigenous representation but lag in visible minority hiring. Quebec offices demonstrate better gender parity in executive positions but face challenges in disability accommodation.
According to Statistics Canada‘s latest labour force survey, the federal government employs approximately 319,600 workers across the country. With potential cuts affecting up to 15 percent of positions, nearly 48,000 jobs could be on the line. The equity implications of such reductions are substantial.
“The pandemic taught us that economic shocks don’t affect all groups equally,” noted Dr. Chen. “Government workforce decisions follow similar patterns—seemingly neutral policies can have deeply unequal outcomes.”
For communities that depend on federal employment, the stakes extend beyond individual jobs. In regions like Northern Ontario and parts of Atlantic Canada, the federal government serves as a major employer offering stable, well-paying positions that support local economies.
Sheila Francis, mayor of a small New Brunswick community with a large federal office presence, expressed concern about the regional equity dimension. “When Ottawa makes these decisions, they need to remember that cutting positions in our town has a different impact than cuts in major cities where employment options are plentiful.”
The Treasury Board has promised quarterly updates on workforce demographics as departments implement their budget reduction strategies. This transparency commitment represents a significant departure from previous rounds of cuts, potentially allowing for course correction if equity imbalances emerge.
What remains unclear is whether departments have the analytical tools and commitment necessary to protect diversity gains while meeting financial targets. The report acknowledges ongoing challenges in retention and promotion of equity-seeking groups, issues that could be exacerbated during periods of institutional contraction.
As one Indigenous executive who requested anonymity told me, “The problem isn’t just who gets laid off, but whose work gets devalued in the process. When departments shrink, Indigenous perspectives and disability accommodation initiatives are often first to be deemed ‘non-essential.'”
For the thousands of public servants from equity-seeking groups, the coming months represent not just a personal employment concern but a test of whether Canada’s commitment to representative bureaucracy can withstand fiscal pressure. The baseline has been established—how the picture changes will reveal much about institutional priorities.
