In the timber-paneled conference room of Ottawa’s Chateau Laurier last week, I watched Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly carefully measure her words when asked about bilateral relations with Washington. The diplomatic veneer couldn’t completely mask what new polling data has just confirmed: Canadian confidence in American leadership has plummeted to troubling depths.
The latest Gallup global leadership survey shows only 46% of Canadians now approve of U.S. leadership under President Biden – a significant 18-point drop from the 64% approval rating recorded in 2021 when Biden first took office. This decline represents one of the steepest falls in confidence among America’s closest allies.
“We’re witnessing the erosion of what many considered an automatic alliance,” explains Dr. Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington. “Canadians increasingly view U.S. policy through a lens of uncertainty rather than dependability.”
The relationship between these two nations – sharing the world’s longest undefended border and approximately $2.6 billion in daily trade – has historically weathered political storms through institutional connections that run deeper than any administration. But the foundation appears increasingly strained.
During three days of interviews across Ontario and Quebec, I found this sentiment echoed among citizens and policy experts alike. In a Montreal café, international trade consultant Marie Desjardins told me, “It’s not just about Biden or Trump. There’s growing concern that American institutions themselves are becoming unpredictable partners.”
The polling decline appears connected to several specific friction points. The Biden administration’s America-first economic policies – particularly the Inflation Reduction Act’s electric vehicle manufacturing incentives – triggered significant anxiety in Canadian manufacturing sectors. Similarly, disputes over dairy market access under the USMCA trade agreement have further complicated economic relations.
According to Global Affairs Canada, approximately 75% of Canadian exports go to the United States, creating an economic dependency that magnifies every policy shift in Washington. This vulnerability becomes particularly acute during election years when trade relationships become political fodder.
Beyond economics, Canadian officials express growing concern about alignment on global security challenges. “We’re seeing divergence in how Ottawa and Washington approach everything from China policy to climate commitments,” notes former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson, now vice-president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.
The Gallup findings parallel broader international trends. U.S. leadership approval declined in 107 out of 134 countries surveyed between 2021 and 2023. The median global approval rating now stands at just 41%.
What makes the Canadian numbers particularly noteworthy is the historical context. During the Obama administration, Canadian approval of U.S. leadership consistently exceeded 60%. The Trump years saw this collapse to just 20% before Biden’s election temporarily restored confidence to 64%.
“The initial Biden bounce reflected relief more than renewed trust,” explains Dr. Laura Dawson, former director of the Canada Institute. “What we’re witnessing now is the settling effect as Canadians realize the fundamental challenges in the relationship transcend individual presidents.”
In Toronto’s financial district, investment manager James Chen described how this political uncertainty affects business planning: “We’re increasingly hedging against U.S. policy volatility. That wasn’t necessary ten years ago.”
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has maintained public optimism about bilateral relations, recently highlighting cooperation on Ukraine and Indo-Pacific security. Yet behind closed doors, Canadian officials acknowledge growing concern about potential policy whiplash depending on November’s election outcome.
The Department of Foreign Affairs has reportedly expanded its U.S. relations team by nearly 30% over the past three years – a quiet acknowledgment of the heightened complexity in managing the relationship.
For ordinary Canadians, the declining trust manifests in subtle but telling ways. In Kitchener, Ontario, manufacturing plant supervisor Robert Lavoie told me, “We used to see America as our big brother – sometimes annoying but ultimately reliable. Now there’s this sense they’re going through something we don’t fully understand.”
The survey data contains one potentially encouraging note: despite declining trust in U.S. leadership specifically, 82% of Canadians still view America favorably as a country – among the highest ratings globally. This suggests the relationship’s underlying foundation remains intact, even as confidence in Washington’s policy direction wavers.
As I departed from a windswept Parliament Hill, with the American embassy visible in the distance, a senior official who requested anonymity put it bluntly: “We’re preparing for a future where we can no longer take American partnership for granted. That’s new territory for Canada.”
For two nations whose relationship former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau once compared to “sleeping with an elephant,” the elephant’s increasingly unpredictable movements have Canadians reconsidering just how close they want to be to their southern neighbor.
