As Ottawa marks the third anniversary of the contentious Border Security Act this week, Canadians find themselves increasingly divided on how to characterize our relationship with our southern neighbor.
The latest National Compass poll reveals a startling shift in public perception: 41% of Canadians now view the United States as a “competitor nation” rather than a trusted ally, up from 27% just three years ago. This represents the most significant realignment in cross-border sentiment since the post-9/11 era.
“We’re witnessing a fundamental recalibration of the Canadian identity in relation to America,” explains Dr. Margot Chen, Director of North American Relations at Carleton University. “This isn’t merely about policy disagreements—it reflects deeper questions about values alignment.”
The polling data shows sharp regional divides. Atlantic Canada and urban Ontario maintain the strongest pro-American sentiment, with 64% still considering the U.S. a “primary ally.” Meanwhile, Quebec and British Columbia respondents were most likely to select “occasional adversary” as their relationship descriptor, at 38% and 35% respectively.
Behind these numbers lies a complex story of economic interdependence challenged by diverging social priorities. During my recent visits to border communities from Windsor to Fort Frances, I heard consistent concerns about the practicalities of maintaining cross-border ties amid growing policy differences.
“We ship 80% of our products south, but I barely recognize the America I knew growing up,” said Jennifer Lapointe, a manufacturing supervisor in Sault Ste. Marie. “My American cousins and I have stopped talking politics altogether.”
The federal government has attempted to navigate this shifting landscape through what Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand calls a “pragmatic partnership” approach. At last month’s bilateral trade summit, she emphasized continuing cooperation on climate initiatives and supply chain security while acknowledging “natural tensions in any mature relationship.”
Conservative opposition critics argue this strategy amounts to diplomatic fence-sitting. “Canadians deserve clarity on where we stand,” said Shadow Foreign Affairs critic Michael Chong during Question Period last week. “Either we’re committed allies or we’re not.”
The data suggests ordinary Canadians are equally conflicted. When asked about specific policy areas, the poll found broad support for continued defense cooperation (72%) and integrated emergency response systems (81%). However, trade policy generated significant concern, with 58% of respondents supporting increased tariffs on American goods that compete with Canadian industries—a marked increase from previous years.
Perhaps most telling is the generational divide evident in the numbers. Among Canadians under 35, only 29% view the United States as a “reliable partner,” compared to 61% of those over 65.
“Younger Canadians have grown up watching American political polarization and policy instability,” notes social researcher Emma Taillon of the Institute for Public Opinion. “They don’t share their grandparents’ emotional attachment to the relationship.”
The practical implications of this shift remain uncertain. Trade volumes between our nations actually increased 4.7% last year according to Statistics Canada, despite the rhetorical tensions. Tourism has rebounded to near pre-pandemic levels, with 15.3 million Americans visiting Canada in 2024.
Yet beneath these surface-level interactions, something fundamental appears to be changing. Provincial premiers increasingly bypass federal channels to establish direct relationships with American state governors on issues ranging from water management to energy policy.
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew’s recent agreement with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz on cross-border disaster response protocols exemplifies this trend. “When emergencies happen, they don’t recognize international boundaries,” Kinew told reporters at the signing ceremony. “Our communities need solutions that work regardless of which flag flies overhead.”
Such pragmatic approaches may offer a model for future relations. As I observed community meetings throughout the border regions of southwestern Ontario this spring, citizens consistently expressed desire for practical cooperation despite ideological differences.
At a town hall in Sarnia, chemical plant worker Dave Melanson captured this sentiment: “I don’t need to agree with everything happening in America to recognize we’re stuck with each other. My job depends on it, frankly.”
Public health experts point to our integrated response systems during recent infectious disease outbreaks as evidence that cooperation remains possible even in politically charged environments. Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, highlighted cross-border vaccine research as “a model for maintaining essential partnerships amid broader disagreements.”
As Parliament prepares for summer recess, the government faces pressure to articulate a clearer vision for the relationship. Prime Minister Trudeau’s upcoming address to the Canadian Club is expected to outline what insiders describe as a “values-based engagement strategy” that neither abandons the historical alliance nor ignores growing differences.
Whether such nuance can satisfy an increasingly divided public remains to be seen. As one senior government official speaking on background told me: “The challenge isn’t determining if we’re allies or adversaries—it’s accepting we might be both simultaneously.”
For ordinary Canadians navigating family connections, business relationships, and shared cultural touchpoints across the border, the political complexities often feel secondary to lived experience.
“I married an American, my kids hold both passports, and we stream the same shows,” said Toronto resident Samantha Wright. “Some weeks I read their news and feel like we’re worlds apart, other days I can’t see the difference. Maybe that’s just how it is now.”
