Article – I’ve spent the better part of last week traveling the Washington-British Columbia corridor, speaking with business owners whose livelihoods depend on cross-border traffic. What I found was a commercial landscape transformed by fear.
“We’re down about 30 percent in Canadian customers since last summer,” said Tom Larsen, who owns a family restaurant in Bellingham, just 25 minutes south of the border. His establishment once relied on weekend visitors from Metro Vancouver. “Some weekends, you’d hear more Canadian accents than American ones.”
That changed dramatically following several high-profile shooting incidents and what many perceive as increasing political tension in the United States. Now, the parking lots that once displayed British Columbia license plates sit half-empty.
Public safety concerns have created an invisible barrier more powerful than any physical checkpoint. Sarah Chen, who runs a boutique in downtown Blaine, showed me her sales records from the past three years. Canadian purchases, which once represented nearly 60 percent of her business, have dwindled to less than 25 percent.
“They tell me they’re just not comfortable crossing anymore,” Chen explained while straightening a display of locally-made jewelry. “It’s not the border wait or the exchange rate keeping them away – it’s fear.”
The Washington State Department of Commerce estimates Canadian visitors typically contribute over $700 million annually to the state economy. Communities within 30 miles of the border derive up to 15 percent of their retail revenue from cross-border shoppers, according to economic impact studies conducted by Western Washington University.
This reluctance appears to have intensified following the July 13 assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. Border communities have reported significant declines in Canadian visitors, with some tourism-dependent businesses reporting revenue drops of 20-35 percent compared to summer 2023.
A recent Angus Reid Institute poll found that 67 percent of British Columbians who previously made regular trips to Washington state now express hesitation about crossing. The primary concern cited was personal safety, followed by concerns about political instability.
“I used to take my kids down to Bellingham for shopping trips at least once a month,” said Michelle Sandhu, a Surrey resident I interviewed at Peace Arch Provincial Park, where visitors can meet without technically crossing the border. “Now? It doesn’t feel worth the risk, even if I’m saving money on groceries.”
The economic impact extends beyond retail. Medical tourism, particularly dental services in border communities, has traditionally attracted significant Canadian clientele seeking lower prices. Dr. Richard Wilson, who operates a dental practice in Lynden, told me his Canadian patient load has decreased by nearly half.
“These are relationships built over decades,” Wilson said. “Patients who’ve been coming to me for twenty years are now telling me they’re looking for Canadian providers instead.”
Gas stations, once a primary destination for Canadians taking advantage of lower U.S. fuel prices, have been particularly hard hit. At a Costco gas station in Bellingham, manager David Thompson pointed to the shorter-than-usual lines.
“Pre-pandemic, you’d wait 30 minutes minimum for gas on weekends,” Thompson recalled. “Canadian plates would make up maybe 60 percent of our customers. Now we’re lucky if it’s 20 percent.”
Tourism officials in Washington have taken notice. The Bellingham Whatcom County Tourism bureau recently launched a “Safe Destinations” marketing campaign specifically targeting British Columbia residents, emphasizing community safety and family-friendly experiences.
“We need to address these perceptions directly,” explained Jessie Martinez, the bureau’s marketing director. “The reality of visitor safety here doesn’t match the headlines people are reading.”
Economic impacts ripple through communities in complex ways. When I visited the Cascade Mall in Burlington, several storefronts sat empty – casualties of both pandemic disruptions and the continued absence of Canadian shoppers.
The Canadian dollar’s current value – hovering around 73 cents USD – should theoretically discourage cross-border shopping. Yet historically, even unfavorable exchange rates haven’t deterred determined Canadian shoppers seeking products unavailable at home or significant price savings on items like dairy, gas, and clothing.
“The exchange rate has been worse before, and they still came,” noted James Peterson, who runs a currency exchange service near the Peace Arch crossing. “This is something different.”
Some businesses are adapting creatively. Packages Plus, a parcel receiving service in Blaine that once catered to Canadians ordering U.S. products, now offers a new service – driving across the border to deliver packages directly to Canadian customers who won’t cross themselves.
“We’ve had to completely reinvent our business model,” owner Lauren Murphy told me. “Either we adapt or we close.”
Statistics Canada reports that same-day car trips to the U.S. from British Columbia decreased 18 percent year-over-year for June 2024, despite border restrictions having been lifted years ago following COVID-19 shutdowns.
Not all cross-border relationships have suffered equally. Essential business travel continues, and some Canadians with deep personal connections to Washington communities maintain their routines. Point Roberts, the unique American peninsula accessible only through Canada, continues to see regular Canadian visitors due to its geographical isolation from broader U.S. concerns.
Washington Governor Jay Inslee recently addressed the issue during a Pacific Northwest economic forum, emphasizing the importance of the cross-border relationship.
“The friendship between Washington state and British Columbia transcends political moments,” Inslee stated. “We want our Canadian neighbors to feel welcome and safe when they visit.”
For now, communities along the I-5 corridor wait and adapt. Some business owners express optimism that the current situation is temporary. Others worry that a fundamental shift in cross-border dynamics has occurred.
“It used to be that the border was just a minor inconvenience – show your passport, answer a few questions,” reflected Chen, the boutique owner. “Now it feels like a dividing line between different worlds.”
As I made my return trip to Ottawa, I couldn’t help noticing the asymmetry at the border crossings – lanes heading into Canada packed with returning citizens, while those heading south carried noticeably lighter traffic. For Washington’s border communities, the road to economic recovery may depend less on exchange rates and more on rebuilding a sense of safety that once made crossing the world’s longest undefended border feel like visiting a neighbor’s house.
