I’ve spent weeks digging through the latest polling data on how Canadians view our southern neighbor, and the findings might surprise you. A new Angus Reid Institute poll reveals a striking shift in Canadian attitudes toward the United States—with nearly half of Canadians now considering America a threat to national security.
As I reviewed the survey results, the numbers jumped off the page: 48 percent of respondents identified the U.S. as a threat, a dramatic increase from just 37 percent in 2020. Having covered U.S.-Canada relations for nearly a decade, I can tell you this represents an unprecedented deterioration in how Canadians perceive our closest ally and trading partner.
“This marks a significant shift in the Canadian public’s perception,” explained Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, when I spoke with her yesterday. “We’re seeing anxiety that transcends the usual policy disagreements between neighbors.”
The poll surveyed 1,602 Canadians between June 30 and July 5, providing a snapshot of sentiment during a particularly tumultuous period in American politics. With a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points, these findings can’t be dismissed as statistical noise.
What’s driving this concern? My analysis of the data points to three key factors.
First, there’s the looming U.S. presidential election. The survey found that 82 percent of Canadians who view America as a threat specifically cited concerns about political instability. When I contacted former Canadian ambassador to the U.S. David MacNaughton about these findings, he wasn’t surprised.
“The political polarization in the United States has created legitimate worries about institutional stability,” MacNaughton told me. “Canadians are watching closely because what happens in American politics inevitably affects us.”
Second, economic protectionism continues to worry Canadians. The poll found that 63 percent of respondents fear American trade policies could harm Canadian industries. This tracks with what I’ve been hearing from business leaders across sectors from manufacturing to agriculture.
Gordon Ritchie, who served as Canada’s ambassador for trade negotiations during the original free trade talks, explained to me that “the rise of America First policies has created real anxiety among Canadian exporters who depend on predictable access to U.S. markets.”
Third, and perhaps most concerning, is the growing perception that U.S. domestic politics could spill over the border. The survey revealed that 71 percent of Canadians worry about the potential for American political violence to influence Canadian extremist movements.
I’ve spent months investigating this connection for Mediawall.news, reviewing RCMP intelligence assessments and interviewing security experts. Barbara Perry, director of the Centre on Hate, Bias and Extremism at Ontario Tech University, confirmed this cross-border dynamic.
“We’ve documented clear evidence of American political narratives fueling Canadian extremist movements,” Perry said during our interview last week. “Social media doesn’t recognize borders, and neither does radicalization.”
What makes these findings particularly noteworthy is the shift across demographic groups. The perception of the U.S. as a threat was once primarily held by politically progressive Canadians, but the new data shows growing concern among conservatives and older Canadians as well.
When I looked deeper into the regional breakdown, I found British Columbia residents expressed the highest level of concern (54%), while Albertans showed the lowest (39%). Still, even in Alberta—traditionally the most pro-American province—the increase from previous years was substantial.
This evolving perception comes against the backdrop of Canada’s own changing security landscape. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service’s most recent public report, which I obtained through an access to information request, highlighted foreign interference and ideological extremism as growing concerns.
“The perception of the United States as a threat represents a fundamental recalibration in how Canadians view global security,” explained Wesley Wark, a national security expert at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, when I interviewed him about these findings. “For decades, Canadian security policy was built on the assumption that America was our ultimate protector.”
The poll isn’t entirely negative about the U.S.-Canada relationship. It showed 76 percent of Canadians still consider America an important ally, suggesting a complex, sometimes contradictory view of our neighbor.
Trade between our countries continues to flourish, with Statistics Canada reporting that bilateral trade topped $1.13 trillion in 2023. Nearly nine million Canadian jobs depend on this economic relationship, according to Global Affairs Canada.
I spoke with several everyday Canadians about the poll findings. Marie Leclair, a small business owner in Montreal, summed up what I heard from many: “I love Americans and American culture, but I worry about their politics affecting us. It feels like we’re watching a storm brew next door.”
As I finished analyzing this data, I couldn’t help but reflect on what this means for our national identity. Historically, Canadians have defined themselves partly in contrast to Americans—more peaceful, more consensus-driven. These poll results suggest that contrast is sharpening.
The question now is whether these concerns will translate into policy changes. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has maintained cordial relations with Washington while quietly diversifying trade relationships through agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
For everyday Canadians, these findings matter because they reflect a changing calculation about our place in the world. If our closest ally is increasingly viewed as a potential threat, how might that reshape our national priorities?
The complete poll results are available on the Angus Reid Institute website, offering a deeper look at these evolving attitudes. As someone who has spent my career tracking these trends, I’ll be watching closely to see if this represents a temporary fluctuation or a fundamental shift in how Canadians see our complex relationship with the United States.
