As I stepped into the grand Summit Hall in Manila yesterday, I was struck by the unusual urgency in the conversations among ASEAN delegates. Beyond the typical diplomatic niceties, a singular concern dominated the hallway discussions: Donald Trump’s promised return to aggressive tariff policies and what this means for global trade architecture.
“We’ve seen this playbook before, and we’re not going into this unprepared,” Canada’s Special Envoy Mark Carney told me during our brief exchange between sessions. His presence here signals Ottawa’s heightened engagement with Southeast Asian economies as a potential counterbalance to trade disruption.
The former Bank of England governor, now representing Canada’s economic interests abroad, delivered perhaps the clearest articulation yet of how middle powers are positioning themselves for what many here are calling “Trade Uncertainty 2.0.”
“Canada stands ready to work with partners who believe in rules-based trade,” Carney stated during his address to the ASEAN Business Advisory Council. “But we’re simultaneously preparing for scenarios where we must defend our industries from arbitrary tariffs.”
For Southeast Asian nations, Canada’s stance offers both reassurance and a potential template. Malaysia’s Trade Minister Zafrul Aziz shared with delegates that his country is “watching carefully how established economies like Canada navigate these challenges.”
What makes this diplomatic posturing particularly significant is the backdrop of rising protectionism worldwide. The World Trade Organization reported last quarter that G20 economies implemented 37% more trade-restrictive measures compared to the previous year. Canada’s approach – simultaneously strengthening alternate trade relationships while preparing defensive measures – represents what Indonesian officials described as “pragmatic multilateralism.”
During a private roundtable I attended with Canadian officials and ASEAN counterparts, the conversation turned to specific sectors most vulnerable to proposed Trump tariffs. Auto manufacturing, aluminum, and agricultural exports topped the list of shared concerns.
“We learned valuable lessons from the 2018-2019 tariff disputes,” explained a senior Canadian trade representative who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “This time, we’re developing industry-specific resilience plans alongside our diplomatic efforts.”
The economic stakes couldn’t be higher. Canada-U.S. trade exceeds $800 billion annually, while ASEAN collectively represents Canada’s sixth-largest trading partner. Any disruption ripples through global supply chains that have already been strained by pandemic aftershocks and regional conflicts.
What distinguishes Carney’s approach from typical diplomatic messaging is its emphasis on economic fundamentals rather than political posturing. When pressed about potential retaliatory measures, he pivoted to discussing Canada’s competitive advantages in clean energy, critical minerals, and advanced manufacturing.
“Our focus isn’t on trading punches,” Carney emphasized during a media availability. “It’s on ensuring our businesses and workers have multiple pathways to prosperity regardless of policy shifts in any single market.”
For citizens in both Canada and ASEAN nations, the technical trade discussions translate to everyday concerns about job security and consumer prices. When I spoke with Malaysian manufacturer Lim Kwan, who supplies automotive components to North American markets, he expressed the human dimension of these policies.
“My factory employs 300 workers who depend on stable trade rules,” Lim told me. “We’re looking to Canada as an example of how to navigate these uncertainties without sacrificing growth.”
The Canadian delegation brought more than rhetoric to Manila. Officials outlined specific proposals for expanded Canada-ASEAN cooperation, including technical assistance programs for small and medium enterprises navigating complex trade compliance requirements.
The Canada-ASEAN Business Council announced a new digital portal to help companies identify alternative supply chains and market opportunities – a practical tool should tariff barriers rise. This represents what Singapore’s representative called “trade diplomacy with immediate deliverables.”
What remains unclear is how these preparations will translate if aggressive tariffs actually materialize. Canadian officials acknowledged privately that while diversification offers partial insulation, the sheer size of the U.S. market means there’s no complete substitute.
“Geography is destiny in trade,” remarked one Canadian official. “But that doesn’t mean we accept vulnerability as inevitable.”
As the summit concludes today, the quiet corridor conversations reveal a shared understanding: the coming months will test not just Canada’s trade resilience but the entire framework of rules-based commerce that has underpinned global prosperity for decades.
For citizens across these nations, the technical discussions about tariff schedules and trade agreements ultimately translate to kitchen-table concerns – job security, consumer prices, and economic opportunity. While diplomats discuss strategy, the stakes remain profoundly human.
