As I stepped into the brisk Ottawa air yesterday morning, whispers of a high-stakes economic gambit were already circulating among government insiders. Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has been tapped for what might be Canada’s most delicate diplomatic assignment this year – face-to-face trade talks with President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team.
“This isn’t just another consultation,” confided a senior Liberal adviser who requested anonymity. “Carney brings something different to the table – he speaks Trump’s language of deal-making while understanding the complexities of international finance that many politicians simply don’t grasp.”
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Canada sends roughly 75% of its exports to the United States, representing about $1.14 trillion in bilateral trade. When Trump first took office in 2017, his administration forced a renegotiation of NAFTA, resulting in the USMCA agreement that preserved most of Canada’s market access but with added pressures on automotive and dairy sectors.
This time around, Trump returns with even more ambitious promises about tariffs – including a potential 10% universal import tax and possible sector-specific tariffs reaching as high as 60% on certain Chinese goods. The ripple effects would be profound for Canada’s integrated supply chains.
“We’ve seen this movie before, but the sequel looks considerably more intense,” says John Weekes, former Canadian chief negotiator for the original NAFTA. “Trump’s economic team is more ideologically aligned with his protectionist instincts this time. Canada needs to be proactive rather than reactive.”
Carney’s appointment signals a strategic shift in Canada’s approach. Unlike career diplomats or trade officials, he brings credibility from having led both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, along with his current role chairing Brookfield Asset Management, one of North America’s largest investment firms.
I’ve covered Carney’s career since his central banking days, watching him navigate the 2008 financial crisis with a steady hand that earned him rare bipartisan respect. His background gives him unique leverage – he understands financial markets, speaks with authority on economic policy, and has maintained connections across the global banking establishment that even Trump’s team respects.
“Carney isn’t just representing Canada here,” explains Laura Dawson, former director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute. “He’s positioning himself as someone who can help the Trump administration achieve their stated goals of job creation and economic growth without destroying the integrated North American marketplace that benefits American consumers and manufacturers.”
During my reporting in manufacturing communities across Ontario and Quebec last month, I found business leaders surprisingly pragmatic about the coming trade turbulence. At an automotive parts factory outside Windsor, the operations manager showed me contingency plans already being developed.
“We survived the first round of tariff threats by getting creative with our supply chain routing,” he explained while walking me through his production floor. “But this time we’re not just reacting – we’re already modeling various scenarios based on different tariff levels. Having someone like Carney involved gives us more confidence that Canada has a serious strategy.”
The timing of these preliminary talks is significant. By engaging now, before Trump’s January inauguration, Canada hopes to shape economic policy discussions before positions harden. According to sources at Global Affairs Canada, Carney’s mandate includes exploring potential compromises on critical minerals, energy security, and border infrastructure that could be framed as “wins” for the incoming administration while protecting Canada’s economic interests.
What makes these discussions particularly sensitive is Carney’s own political profile. Long rumored as a potential Liberal Party leader, his role blurs the line between technocratic problem-solving and political diplomacy. Conservative critics have already questioned whether his involvement might complicate Canada’s ability to work with a Republican administration.
“The challenge for Carney is to separate his personal political ambitions from national interest,” says Fen Hampson, Chancellor’s
