As the dust settles from Donald Trump’s electoral victory, Canada’s envoy Mark Carney is preparing for a high-stakes economic showdown with the incoming administration. Sources close to the negotiations indicate talks could begin as early as January, well before Trump’s official inauguration.
“We’re not waiting for the ceremonial aspects,” said a senior Canadian official who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters. “The economic relationship between our countries can’t afford a prolonged period of uncertainty.”
Carney, the former Bank of England and Bank of Canada governor, was tapped by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in October for this precise scenario – leveraging his global financial credibility to negotiate with a business-minded president-elect who has repeatedly threatened tariffs as high as 25 percent on Canadian goods.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Canada sends approximately 75% of its exports to the U.S., representing roughly $2 billion in daily trade. Any disruption would send shockwaves through Canada’s economy, potentially triggering widespread job losses and market instability.
At a private economic forum in Ottawa last week, Carney outlined what he calls a “pragmatic engagement strategy” that looks beyond ideological differences to focus on mutual economic benefit. His approach centers on three pillars: energy security, critical minerals for technology manufacturing, and integrated defense production.
“Mark understands Trump’s transactional approach better than most politicians,” said Jennifer Levin, trade policy director at the Canadian American Business Council. “He speaks the language of markets, which gives him credibility with Trump’s business-oriented team.”
Trump’s “America First” trade agenda represents a significant departure from traditional Republican free trade orthodoxy. His campaign promises included across-the-board tariffs on foreign imports, with particular focus on automobiles, energy products, and agricultural goods – all central to the Canada-U.S. trading relationship.
Canadian business leaders are particularly concerned about the auto sector, where integrated supply chains mean vehicles often cross the border multiple times during production. The Center for Automotive Research estimates that a 25% tariff could eliminate up to 160,000 jobs in Canada’s auto manufacturing regions.
“We’ve been here before with the USMCA negotiations,” said Carlos Gomes, senior economist at Scotiabank. “But this time the rhetoric is more intense, and Trump feels vindicated by his victory. Carney needs to find ways to reframe Canadian trade as beneficial to American workers.”
Behind the scenes, Carney has been meeting with key Canadian industry groups, building a comprehensive database of Canada-U.S. economic integration points that highlight mutual dependencies. This includes specific data on American jobs supported by Canadian trade in key electoral battleground states – information that could prove persuasive to a president focused on his reelection prospects in 2028.
The strategy also involves rallying support from U.S. governors and business leaders in states heavily dependent on Canadian imports and exports. “We’re activating every relationship we have,” said a member of Carney’s team. “When governors from border states start calling the White House about trade disruptions, it creates internal pressure that can be very effective.”
Energy security has emerged as an unexpected potential bright spot. Trump’s commitment to energy dominance aligns with Canada’s position as America’s largest foreign energy supplier. The Pathways Alliance, representing major Canadian oil producers, has already signaled willingness to increase production capacity if guaranteed market access.
“Trump wants America energy independent, but the reality is North American energy independence makes more strategic sense,” explained Energy analyst Maria Rodriguez. “Carney is positioning Canadian oil and gas as part of America’s energy security solution, not a competitive threat.”
Critical minerals represent another potential area of agreement. Both countries are concerned about China’s dominance in rare
