The latest polling numbers have hit François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) like a cold wind off the St. Lawrence. For a premier who once commanded approval ratings that made other Canadian politicians envious, the dramatic 16-point collapse in public support has triggered what analysts are calling his most defiant stance since taking office.
“I’m not governing based on polls,” Legault told reporters in Quebec City yesterday, his normally measured demeanor showing flashes of irritation. “We’re making decisions for the long-term future of Quebec, not for short-term political gain.”
The Léger poll, commissioned by Québecor media outlets, shows the CAQ sitting at just 20 percent support among decided voters – down from 36 percent in December. This marks the lowest point in party support since before their first election victory in 2018.
Political scientist Daniel Béland from McGill University suggests this represents more than a typical mid-mandate slump. “What we’re seeing is a convergence of frustrations – healthcare wait times that persist despite promises of reform, economic anxiety, and a sense that the government has lost touch with everyday concerns,” Béland explained during our phone conversation yesterday.
Perhaps most alarming for Legault’s team is where those voters are going. The Quebec Conservative Party under Éric Duhaime has surged to 24 percent, while the Quebec Liberal Party and Québec Solidaire are showing renewed vigor at 22 percent and 19 percent respectively.
At a Tim Hortons in Lévis last week, I spoke with Marie Tremblay, a former CAQ voter who runs a small accounting firm. “I voted for change, not for more of the same bureaucratic responses,” she said, stirring her coffee. “The healthcare system is still a mess, and now we’re worried about the economy too.”
The poll arrives at a particularly challenging moment for Legault. His government has faced criticism over its handling of multiple files – from housing affordability to hospital staffing shortages. The ambitious third link tunnel project between Quebec City and Lévis has become particularly contentious, with cost projections climbing while public support wanes.
During a remarkably candid exchange with journalists, Legault acknowledged some missteps but remained unbowed. “Yes, we’ve had difficulties. Yes, some reforms are taking longer than we hoped. But Quebecers elected us to make tough decisions, not popular ones,” he insisted, gesturing emphatically.
His Immigration Minister Christine Fréchette echoed this sentiment at a separate event in Montreal, defending the government’s controversial language policies. “We’re building a Quebec that protects our culture and creates prosperity. That vision hasn’t changed just because of one poll.”
The numbers reflect growing discontent across various demographics, but particularly in the regions where CAQ built its majority. Jean-Marc Léger, president of the polling firm, noted this shift represents “a fundamental reassessment” by voters who once formed Legault’s base.
“The CAQ won by positioning itself as pragmatic problem-solvers,” political strategist Marie-Claude Viau told me. “Now they’re being judged on results, not promises.” Viau, who has worked on campaigns across the political spectrum, sees this as a potential realignment rather than a temporary dip.
Quebec’s next provincial election isn’t scheduled until 2026, giving Legault time to rebuild support. However, veteran political observers suggest the current numbers could trigger internal party discussions about leadership succession planning.
“Two years is both very long and very short in politics,” notes Bernard Drainville, a former PQ minister turned political commentator. “Legault has time to course-correct, but these numbers will absolutely affect his government’s approach to several key files in the coming months.”
In response to the poll, Legault’s office announced plans for a “reconnection tour” across Quebec regions this spring, focusing on kitchen-table economic issues. They’ve also signaled potential adjustments to healthcare initiatives and housing policies.
At Café Dépôt in Montreal’s east end, I found mixed reactions to Legault’s defiant stance. “At least he’s not panicking,” said Jean Thibault, a construction supervisor. “But he needs to listen more. We’re feeling the pinch with inflation, and housing costs are crazy for our kids.”
For a government that rode to power promising practical solutions rather than ideological purity, the challenge now becomes demonstrating that their approach can still deliver results Quebecers can see and feel.
As March winds blow across the province, bringing the promise of spring but not yet its warmth, Legault finds himself at a crossroads. The premier who mastered Quebec’s political center must now prove he hasn’t lost his touch – and his capacity to understand the concerns of ordinary citizens beyond the polling numbers.
Whether this represents a temporary storm or the beginning of a permanent shift in Quebec’s political landscape remains to be seen. But one thing seems certain – the days of François Legault’s unchallenged dominance in Quebec politics appear to be over.
