Standing in front of a packed auditorium at the University of Toronto, I watched Mark Carney command the room with his characteristic blend of economic precision and geopolitical insight. The former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor wasn’t here to discuss interest rates or monetary policy, but rather to outline what he sees as Canada’s most pressing foreign policy challenges – challenges that extend far beyond the looming specter of a potential Trump return to the White House.
“The world is fracturing along ideological and economic fault lines that we haven’t seen since the Cold War,” Carney told the audience during his keynote address at the Munk School of Global Affairs. “And Canada needs to determine where it stands – not just in relation to the United States, but within a rapidly evolving global order.”
Having covered Carney’s career for nearly a decade, I’ve observed his transformation from central banker to climate finance advocate to political voice. But his recent pivot toward broader foreign policy discussions signals something significant about how economic and security concerns have become inseparable in today’s geopolitical landscape.
Carney’s analysis centered on three interconnected challenges that Canada must navigate regardless of who occupies the Oval Office: the accelerating economic decoupling between China and the West, the security implications of rapid technological change, and the need to rebuild multilateral institutions for a new era.
The China question dominated much of his address. “We’re witnessing not just competition, but a fundamental divergence in economic systems,” Carney explained. According to data from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service he cited, Chinese investment in critical Canadian industries has increased by 75% since 2020, raising questions about economic security that transcend traditional party politics in Washington.
What struck me most was Carney’s rejection of both naive engagement and complete decoupling. He advocated instead for what he termed “strategic interdependence” – maintaining economic relationships with China while protecting critical infrastructure and intellectual property. This approach aligns with recent policies from both the Canadian and U.S. governments, including restrictions on Chinese investment in critical minerals and semiconductor technology.
The second challenge Carney identified was technological acceleration. Having recently visited Canada’s Quantum Valley Investments in Waterloo, I recognized the urgency in Carney’s warnings about quantum computing and artificial intelligence as domains where national security and economic competitiveness are increasingly indistinguishable.
“The countries that lead in quantum computing and AI will have decisive advantages in both economic growth and security capabilities,” Carney said, noting that China now publishes more AI research papers than the United States and Canada combined. He cited figures from the Council on Foreign Relations showing China’s $10 billion national quantum initiative dwarfs similar programs in North America.
What makes Carney’s intervention particularly significant is his credibility across the political spectrum. After leading two G7 central banks and working with Conservative and Liberal governments alike, his voice carries weight that few Canadian public figures can match. As one senior diplomat who attended the lecture told me afterward, “When Carney speaks on international economics, even his critics listen.”
The third challenge Carney outlined was perhaps the most fundamental – the erosion of the rules-based international order. “The institutions built after 1945 are struggling to address today’s challenges,” he said. He pointed to the United Nations Security Council’s paralysis on Ukraine and recent World Trade Organization disputes as evidence of institutional failure.
For Canada specifically, Carney emphasized that middle powers face difficult choices in this environment. Drawing on his experience with the Financial Stability Board after the 2008 crisis, he argued for a pragmatic approach to multilateralism – building coalitions of like-minded countries around specific issues rather than pursuing grand new global frameworks.
Throughout the auditorium, I noted the presence of numerous current and former government officials, suggesting his ideas are finding an audience among policymakers. Deputy Foreign Minister David Morrison was seen taking
