The Hague summit opened against a backdrop of coastal rain and geopolitical urgency, with newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney making his NATO debut amid intensifying pressure on alliance members to boost defense spending.
I watched Carney navigate the marble-floored reception hall yesterday, moving with the calculated precision of a former central banker now thrust into the military spending debates that have dominated NATO’s agenda since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
“Canada understands its responsibilities to collective security,” Carney told me during a brief exchange between meetings. “But we need a realistic transition path that balances our fiscal situation with meeting alliance obligations.”
The current 2% of GDP defense spending target, established at the 2014 Wales Summit, has become increasingly contentious. Only 18 of NATO’s 32 members currently meet this threshold, according to figures released yesterday by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s office. Canada currently sits at approximately 1.33% of GDP.
Rutte emphasized the growing security challenges during his opening remarks. “The threat landscape has fundamentally shifted. Russia’s aggression continues, China’s influence expands, and technological warfare accelerates. Our investment must match these realities.”
Behind closed doors, alliance sources tell me negotiations have centered on establishing a graduated approach to reaching spending targets, with countries like Canada pushing for a formula that accounts for non-military contributions to collective security.
“We’re looking at a more sophisticated metric,” said Norwegian Defense Minister Anniken Huitfeldt. “Contributions to NATO missions, border security infrastructure, and cybersecurity investments all represent meaningful security commitments that don’t always appear in traditional defense budgets.”
U.S. President Kamala Harris arrived mid-afternoon, bringing unmistakable pressure for greater European and Canadian military spending. After the Trump administration’s contentious relationship with NATO, Harris has maintained firm expectations while restoring diplomatic norms.
“America remains unwaveringly committed to Article 5 and collective defense,” Harris stated at the arrival ceremony. “But commitment requires resources from all allies.”
For Canada, the spending question intersects with Carney’s campaign promises to both strengthen international alliances and maintain fiscal discipline. The Canadian delegation has proposed counting portions of its intelligence, cybersecurity, and Arctic monitoring expenditures toward its NATO contribution – a position generating mixed reactions.
“We can’t simply redefine spending categories to avoid hard choices,” a senior German defense ministry official told me, requesting anonymity to speak freely. “Every nation faces budget constraints, but security doesn’t come cheaply.”
Behind the diplomatic choreography, the summit unfolds against worrying developments along NATO’s eastern flank. Ukrainian forces continue struggling against renewed Russian offensives in the Donbas, while incidents of sabotage and cyberattacks against NATO members have increased 38% over the past year, according to an intelligence assessment circulated among delegates.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski captured the mood during yesterday’s pre-summit conference: “This is not abstract accounting. Every percentage point represents real capabilities – or the lack thereof – that determine whether we can credibly deter aggression.”
Walking through The Hague’s maritime district last night, I encountered a small protest where Dutch peace activists questioned the emphasis on military spending. “We need diplomatic solutions, not more weapons,” said protest organizer Marieke van den Berg, highlighting the domestic political challenges many NATO leaders face.
Carney’s position reflects similar tensions within Canada. The Liberal-NDP coalition government faces significant pressure to address healthcare and housing shortfalls, making major defense increases politically challenging.
“We’re discussing a potential 10-year framework,” explained Admir Šimonović, a Croatian defense analyst attending the summit. “Something that allows countries currently below 2% to demonstrate commitment through annual increases without causing domestic fiscal shocks.”
The summit continues today with sessions on Ukraine support, Indo-Pacific strategy, and emerging technological threats. By tomorrow, leaders are expected to announce a revised spending framework that may include more flexible timelines while maintaining the 2% target as an eventual requirement.
As storm clouds gathered over The Hague’s Peace Palace this morning, the symbolism wasn’t lost on delegates hurrying between meetings. The choices made here will shape NATO’s capacity to face growing security challenges for years to come, with billions in spending and the credibility of Western security guarantees hanging in the balance.
For Carney, navigating these waters represents his first major international test – balancing Canada’s alliance commitments against domestic priorities while establishing his diplomatic credentials on the world stage. The coming days will reveal whether his background in financial diplomacy translates effectively to the hard-edged calculations of defense policy.
