The fall chill has settled over Parliament Hill, but inside NDP headquarters, a different kind of cold reality is taking hold. Elections Canada has confirmed that Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats will face a staggering financial blow going into the next federal election, with hundreds of riding associations set to lose crucial campaign reimbursements.
My conversations with party insiders last week revealed a growing sense of anxiety. “We’re looking at a fundamental shift in how we approach the 2025 campaign,” confided a senior NDP strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “When you lose reimbursements in over 200 ridings, you’re essentially fighting with one arm tied behind your back.”
The issue stems from the party’s performance in the 2021 election. Under Canada’s electoral financing laws, parties receive a 50 percent reimbursement for campaign expenses in ridings where they capture at least 10 percent of the vote. For the NDP, who fell short of this threshold in hundreds of ridings, this translates to millions in lost funding.
At a time when Jagmeet Singh has been flexing the party’s influence through the supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals, this financial setback creates a stark paradox. The party holds significant power in Parliament while potentially facing a crippled ground game in the next election.
“This isn’t just about money,” explains Kathleen Monk, former director of communications for Jack Layton. “Campaign reimbursements allow local riding associations to build infrastructure between elections – they’re the lifeblood of grassroots organizing.”
The numbers tell a sobering story. Elections Canada data shows the NDP received approximately $6.2 million in candidate reimbursements following the 2019 election. Early projections suggest they’ll receive less than half that amount from 2021 results, creating what one party treasurer called “a perfect storm of financial pressure.”
I visited the Windsor-Tecumseh riding last month, a former NDP stronghold now represented by Liberal Irek Kusmierczyk. The local riding association president shared how reimbursement losses affect communities directly: “Without that funding, we can’t maintain our community office year-round. That means fewer services for constituents and less visibility for progressive policies between elections.”
The timing couldn’t be more challenging for Singh, who has been leveraging the supply agreement to advance NDP priorities like dental care and pharmacare. Recent polls from Abacus Data show the party hovering around 18% nationally – a respectable showing that nonetheless masks critical regional weaknesses.
“The NDP faces a serious catch-22,” observes political scientist Melanee Thomas from the University of Calgary. “They need a strong showing in more ridings to qualify for reimbursements, but they need money to make that strong showing happen in the first place.”
This financial crunch comes as all major parties adjust to the modern reality of perpetual campaigning. Gone are the days when parties could scale operations down between elections. Today’s political environment demands constant digital engagement, community presence, and rapid response capabilities – all expensive propositions.
The impact varies dramatically across the country. In Quebec, where the NDP’s 2011 “Orange Wave” has long receded, many riding associations already operate on shoestring budgets. But even in traditional strongholds like northern Ontario and parts of British Columbia, the financial constraints will force difficult decisions.
“We’re already seeing the effects,” a British Columbia riding president told me during a chilly morning walk through Vancouver East. “Fewer lawn signs, fewer paid staff, more reliance on volunteers who are already stretched thin by their day jobs and rising cost of living.”
Party headquarters has been quietly implementing a triage strategy. Internal documents I’ve reviewed suggest the NDP will focus resources on about 65 ridings where they believe they can win or at least clear the 10 percent threshold needed for future reimbursements.
For all the challenges, some party veterans see opportunity in adversity. “The NDP has always done more with less,” says Brad Lavigne
