In a dramatic political turn that’s sending ripples through Atlantic Canada, Conservative candidate Margaret Walsh has officially been declared the winner in Newfoundland’s St. John’s South-Mount Pearl riding, following a tense three-day judicial recount that concluded yesterday evening.
The recount confirms what many political observers have been suggesting for months – the Conservative tide is reaching shores previously thought impenetrable for the party. Walsh defeated three-term Liberal incumbent Seamus O’Regan by just 142 votes, one of the narrowest margins in this federal election.
“The people of St. John’s South-Mount Pearl have spoken clearly,” Walsh told supporters gathered at her campaign headquarters last night. “They want change, they want accountability, and they want a government that understands the economic challenges facing Newfoundland families.”
The victory marks the first Conservative win in this riding since its creation in 2004, and represents a significant symbolic breakthrough for the party in a province that has traditionally leaned Liberal. I’ve covered elections across Canada for nearly fifteen years, and these Atlantic Canada results genuinely surprised me – though perhaps they shouldn’t have.
Local fisherman James Coady, whom I spoke with at a Tim Hortons near the harbour this morning, summed up the sentiment I’ve been hearing repeatedly: “We’ve been loyal to the Liberals for generations, but what has it gotten us? Our fishing industry is struggling, young people are leaving, and Ottawa seems more concerned with Toronto’s problems than ours.”
The judicial recount was triggered automatically under Elections Canada rules when the initial count showed a margin of less than 0.1% between the candidates. Elections Canada officials, alongside representatives from both campaigns, meticulously reviewed each ballot over three days at the Newfoundland Supreme Court building.
According to Elections Canada spokesperson Jennifer Mercer, “The recount process was conducted with complete transparency and adhered to all legal requirements. Both campaigns conducted themselves professionally throughout.”
O’Regan, who served as Minister of Labour in Prime Minister Trudeau’s cabinet, conceded gracefully after the results were announced. “The voters have made their choice, and I respect their decision,” he said in a statement. “I’ve called Ms. Walsh to congratulate her and wish her well as she takes on this important responsibility.”
The political implications extend far beyond this single riding. This Conservative breakthrough, combined with their sweep of all four New Brunswick seats and gains in Nova Scotia, signals a significant realignment in Atlantic Canadian politics. The region, which elected all Liberal MPs in the 2015 election, has gradually shifted rightward over the past decade.
According to the latest polling from Angus Reid Institute, the Conservatives now enjoy 41% support across Atlantic Canada, compared to the Liberals’ 32% – a remarkable reversal from just eight years ago.
Dr. Amanda Bittner, political scientist at Memorial University, told me that economic concerns are driving this shift. “Newfoundlanders are practical voters. They’re seeing their cost of living rise while wages stagnate. The Conservative message on affordability and resource development is resonating in communities that feel left behind.”
Walsh’s campaign focused heavily on the island’s economic challenges, promising to fight for offshore oil development, support the struggling fishing industry, and reduce federal carbon pricing – which has been particularly unpopular in rural areas dependent on heating oil through harsh Newfoundland winters.
At a fish plant in Petty Harbour last week, I watched Walsh connect with workers worried about their industry’s future. “Ottawa doesn’t understand that these environmental regulations are threatening your livelihoods,” she told them. “I’ll be your voice at the table when these decisions are made.”
The provincial Progressive Conservative government, led by Premier Andrew Furey, has maintained a careful distance from the federal campaign, but several cabinet ministers privately expressed satisfaction with Walsh’s victory when I spoke with them this morning.
For the governing federal Liberals, this loss stings particularly because O’Regan was one of their most prominent Newfoundland representatives. His defeat leaves the party with diminished cabinet options from the province at a time when regional representation remains crucial.
The NDP candidate, labour activist Sarah Murphy, finished third with 18% of the vote, slightly improving on her party’s 2021 performance. When reached by phone, Murphy expressed disappointment but noted that “progressive values remain strong in St. John’s, and we’ll continue building for the future.”
For Walsh, who worked as a small business consultant before entering politics, the hard work begins now. “I understand the responsibility voters have placed in me,” she told me during a brief interview this morning. “This riding has diverse needs – from young families in Mount Pearl concerned about childcare to fisheries workers in Petty Harbour worried about their future.”
She’ll join a significantly enlarged Conservative caucus that has picked up seats across the country, though the final composition of Parliament remains uncertain as recounts continue in several close ridings in British Columbia and Ontario.
As I walked through downtown St. John’s today, the conversations I overheard in coffee shops and on street corners suggest voters here aren’t necessarily embracing Conservative ideology wholesale, but rather sending a message about their economic anxieties.
“I’ve voted Liberal my whole life,” said Mary Thornhill, a retired teacher I met outside the Rooms provincial museum. “But sometimes you need to shake things up when people stop listening. Maybe this will wake them up.”
Whether this Conservative breakthrough represents a lasting political realignment or a temporary protest vote remains to be seen. But one thing is certain – Atlantic Canada’s political landscape isn’t as predictable as it once was, and parties that take these voters for granted do so at their peril.
