The latest housing start figures released yesterday paint a troubling picture for Ontario’s ambitious building targets, with October numbers showing a 15% decline compared to the same period last year. As someone who’s tracked housing policy across three provincial administrations, this slowdown signals deeper structural challenges that could derail the Ford government’s promise to build 1.5 million homes by 2031.
Walking through Toronto’s Liberty Village last week, I spoke with developer Sanjay Patel, who pointed to half-finished mid-rise projects dotting the skyline. “We’ve got approved permits, we’ve got demand, but we’re missing workers and fighting rising material costs,” he explained, gesturing toward a crane sitting idle above us. “The math just doesn’t work for many builders right now.”
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) data shows only 4,823 housing starts across Ontario in October, down from 5,680 in October 2024. The year-to-date figures tell an equally concerning story – the province has achieved just 42,750 starts through October, well below the pace needed to hit the annual target of 150,000 units.
“The government keeps announcing new programs and regulatory changes, but we’re not seeing them translate into shovels in the ground,” notes housing economist Patricia Mendes from Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research. “What we’re witnessing is policy implementation lag compounded by market uncertainty.”
Municipal Affairs Minister Paul Calandra defended the government’s approach at a press conference in Mississauga, citing the Housing Affordability Task Force’s recent implementation review. “We’ve eliminated unnecessary red tape, streamlined approvals, and committed historic funding. The foundations for growth are in place, but market conditions have created temporary headwinds.”
But opposition critics aren’t buying these explanations. NDP housing critic Jessica Bell pointed out that the government’s own internal forecasts, obtained through freedom of information requests, had predicted this shortfall as early as March. “They knew their policies weren’t delivering the needed results, yet they continued with the same approach while housing affordability worsened for ordinary Ontarians.”
The numbers vary dramatically by region. While Ottawa has maintained relatively stable construction rates, the Greater Toronto Area has seen starts decline by nearly 23% year-over-year. Northern communities like Thunder Bay and Sudbury have fared better, with modest 5-7% increases, though their overall contribution to provincial totals remains small.
For everyday Ontarians, the practical implications are immediate and painful. Average one-bedroom rental prices in Toronto hit $2,610 last month according to the Canadian Rental Housing Index, forcing many essential workers into marathon commutes from increasingly distant communities.
“I’m a registered nurse at Toronto General, but I live in Hamilton,” explains Nadine Chow, who I met on the GO Train during morning rush hour. “It’s a three-hour round trip daily, but nursing salaries haven’t kept pace with Toronto housing costs. Many of my colleagues are leaving healthcare or leaving Ontario entirely.”
The construction slowdown affects different housing types unevenly. Starts for single-family homes have actually increased slightly by 3%, while multi-unit buildings – the apartments and condos that typically provide more affordable entry points for first-time buyers – have seen the steepest declines at nearly 22%.
Recent polling from Abacus Data suggests housing affordability has now surpassed healthcare as voters’ top concern, with 68% of Ontarians reporting they or someone in their immediate family has struggled with housing costs in the past year.
The provincial budget allocated $4.3 billion toward housing initiatives this fiscal year, including $650 million for the Building Faster Fund that rewards municipalities meeting construction targets. However, municipal leaders argue this approach misidentifies the problem.
“We’ve approved more than 25,000 units in Mississauga that simply aren’t being built,” Mayor Carolyn Parrish told me during a recent infrastructure announcement. “Developers are sitting on approvals while waiting for more favorable construction costs. No amount of municipal incentives can overcome basic market economics.”
Industry insiders point to multiple factors slowing construction. The Independent Contractors Association of Ontario reports skilled trade shortages approaching 20% in critical areas like electrical and plumbing. Meanwhile, the Building Material Price Index shows costs remaining 32% above pre-pandemic levels despite recent moderation.
“We’re caught in a perfect storm,” explains homebuilder association president Dave Williams. “Labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and financing challenges with higher interest rates – all while trying to navigate constantly changing regulations across different levels of government.”
Innovative approaches are emerging from some quarters. The Township of Innisfil has partnered with Habitat for Humanity on a community land trust model that’s delivered 64 affordable units this year. Meanwhile, Kingston has pioneered inclusionary zoning requirements that have maintained a steady pace of affordable housing creation despite market challenges.
Looking ahead, both government officials and industry analysts acknowledge that meeting the province’s ambitious 1.5 million home target will require significant course correction. The question remains whether Ontario can adapt quickly enough to prevent the current housing shortfall from becoming a full-blown crisis with long-lasting economic and social consequences.
As one young couple I spoke with outside a Toronto rental viewing put it: “We both have good jobs, we’ve saved for years, and we still can’t afford to put down roots here. At some point, you have to wonder if staying in Ontario makes sense anymore.”
For a province betting its economic future on population growth and talent attraction, that’s a question no government can afford to ignore.
