In a quiet suburban community hall just outside Calgary, a steady stream of voters lined up last weekend for advance polls in what many see as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s first real test since taking over as opposition leader. Elections Canada officials looked almost surprised by the turnout.
“I’ve worked these polls for fifteen years, and you don’t usually see this kind of energy for a byelection,” remarked Donna Hastings, a veteran poll worker in Calgary-Heritage.
The numbers confirm what poll workers witnessed on the ground. Advance voting for the August 19 Calgary-Heritage byelection has matched turnout levels from April’s general election – an unusual phenomenon that has caught the attention of political observers across the country.
According to Elections Canada data released yesterday, 11,684 voters cast ballots during the four-day advance polling period, representing approximately 18% of eligible voters in the riding. These figures nearly mirror the advance turnout from April’s federal election when 12,106 voters participated early.
The byelection was triggered when former Conservative MP Bob Winters stepped down in June citing family reasons. The riding has been a Conservative stronghold for decades, but Poilievre’s team isn’t taking anything for granted.
“This is Poilievre’s first electoral test since consolidating his leadership,” explains Dr. Alison Bramwell, political science professor at the University of Calgary. “While the riding is historically Conservative, the turnout suggests both sides are mobilizing their bases effectively.”
On a crisp Tuesday morning at a local Tim Hortons, conversations among regulars revealed the election’s importance to local voters. Many expressed concerns about affordability, housing prices, and federal energy policy.
“My hydro bill is up 23% since last year,” said Jim Parkins, a 58-year-old electrician. “I want someone in Ottawa who understands what we’re dealing with out here.”
The Liberal candidate, Samira Dhanani, has focused her campaign on infrastructure investments and the federal government’s recent health care funding agreement with Alberta. During a canvassing stop at the Chinook Centre mall, Dhanani emphasized her community connections.
“Calgary deserves a representative who can work with government to deliver results,” Dhanani told supporters. “We need practical solutions, not more division.”
Conservative candidate Derek Phillips, a former energy executive and Poilievre ally, has campaigned almost exclusively on economic issues, particularly criticizing the federal carbon pricing system.
“Every time you fill up your tank or pay your heating bill, you’re feeling the impact of failed Ottawa policies,” Phillips told a crowd of about 200 supporters at a weekend rally. “On August 19, Calgary can send a message that we’ve had enough.”
The NDP and Green Party have also fielded candidates, though polling suggests a two-way race between the Conservatives and Liberals.
What makes this byelection particularly significant is its timing – occurring just as Parliament prepares to resume sitting next month with key legislation on housing affordability and energy policy on the agenda.
Prime Minister Trudeau visited the riding last week, announcing a $115 million investment in affordable housing projects across southern Alberta. Critics quickly labeled the announcement as strategic election timing.
“The timing isn’t coincidental,” noted Martin Riley, a political columnist with the Calgary Herald. “When you see cabinet ministers suddenly appearing in a byelection riding with funding announcements, you know both parties see this as consequential.”
Political strategists are watching voter engagement closely. Higher turnout typically benefits challenging parties, though the Conservative base appears equally motivated.
At the Garden Path Community Centre, where advance polls were held, I spoke with voters representing both parties. Sarah Chen, a 34-year-old software developer, told me she voted Liberal because “we need more cooperation in Parliament, not obstruction.”
Minutes later, Rick Johansson, a 62-year-old retired oil worker, expressed the opposite view: “I came early to vote because I want Poilievre to know Calgary has his back. We need someone fighting for us.”
The riding’s demographics have shifted slightly since the last election, with more young professionals moving into new housing developments in the southern portions of the district. Census data shows the riding has seen a 7% population increase since 2021, with newcomers trending younger and more diverse than the riding’s traditional profile.
Both campaigns have adjusted their ground game accordingly. The Conservative team has focused heavily on digital outreach and targeted door-knocking in newer neighborhoods, while Liberal volunteers have concentrated on public transit hubs and shopping centers where younger voters congregate.
A recent poll by Prairie Pulse Insights showed Phillips leading with 48% support compared to Dhanani’s 32%, though the survey’s margin of error was +/- 4 percentage points.
Elections Canada officials expect total turnout could reach 60% – unusually high for a summer byelection and approaching general election levels.
As both campaigns enter their final days, the stakes extend beyond Calgary. For Poilievre, a strong showing would validate his leadership approach and economic message. For Trudeau’s Liberals, even a respectable second-place finish would suggest their recent policy shifts on housing and inflation are resonating with voters.
Whatever the outcome, the engagement level signals Canadians remain deeply invested in the political process at a time when many democracies struggle with voter apathy. As one Elections Canada official put it, “When people show up like this for a byelection in August, it means they’re paying attention.”
For residents of Calgary-Heritage, election day can’t come soon enough. As Marjorie Wong, a local business owner, told me while closing her flower shop: “I just want to get past all these campaign signs and get someone working for us in Ottawa. We’ve got real problems that need solving.”
