After watching two veteran Conservative MPs walk away, the rumblings on Parliament Hill are growing louder. Sources close to both departed parliamentarians tell me these exits weren’t just about personal career choices, but signal deeper fractures within Pierre Poilievre’s caucus that may prove difficult to repair before the next election cycle.
Michael Chong, the long-serving MP from Wellington-Halton Hills who recently resigned his seat, had privately expressed concerns about the party’s rightward shift, according to a former staff member who requested anonymity. “Michael has always been about democratic reform and moderate conservatism,” they told me during a walk near the Centennial Flame last Thursday. “The direction under Poilievre just didn’t align with his vision for Canada.”
This follows closely on the heels of Eric Duncan’s announcement that he won’t seek re-election in his Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry riding. Though Duncan cited family reasons for his departure, Conservative insiders suggest his moderate stance on social issues had increasingly placed him at odds with the party’s messaging.
“We’re seeing the narrowing of the Conservative tent,” says Dr. Lori Turnbull, Director of the School of Public Administration at Dalhousie University. “Historically, successful Conservative leaders have managed to balance the party’s various factions. Poilievre appears to be choosing a different strategy.”
The timing couldn’t be worse for a party trying to present itself as government-in-waiting. With the Liberals struggling in the polls – Abacus Data recently placed them 10 points behind the Conservatives – these resignations risk undermining Poilievre’s narrative of a unified alternative to Trudeau.
At Tim Hortons in Smiths Falls last weekend, I heard concerns from traditional Conservative voters. “I’ve voted blue my whole life,” said Robert McIntyre, a retired manufacturing supervisor. “But I worry when I see people like Chong leaving. Those are the reasonable voices we need.”
Poilievre’s team has downplayed the departures. “Members make personal decisions about their futures all the time,” Conservative spokesperson Sarah Fischer stated in an email. “The party remains focused on offering Canadians relief from the affordability crisis created by Liberal mismanagement.”
But former Conservative strategist Jenni Byrne sees warning signs. “When experienced parliamentarians start heading for the exits, particularly those with moderate credentials, it suggests internal disagreement about the party’s direction,” she told me. “The challenge for Poilievre is maintaining enthusiasm from his base while not alienating the swing voters needed to win government.”
The Conservative caucus has been experiencing noticeable ideological tension since Poilievre’s leadership victory. His populist messaging on housing affordability and government spending has energized supporters, particularly younger voters frustrated with economic prospects. However, his approach to social issues and occasional embrace of more controversial positions has created friction with the party’s more centrist members.
Elections Canada data shows the party needs to make significant inroads in suburban ridings around Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal to form government – exactly the areas where moderate Conservative voices have traditionally helped the party compete against Liberals.
Local riding associations are feeling the strain. In Durham Region, where Conservatives typically perform well, local organizer Janice Thompson told me they’re struggling to attract the same volunteer enthusiasm they’ve had in previous campaigns. “Some of our longtime supporters are sitting this one out. They’re not comfortable with some of the rhetoric.”
A recently retired senior public servant who worked under both Liberal and Conservative governments offered perspective on condition of anonymity: “What we’re witnessing is the natural tension in Canadian conservative politics between populism and traditional Toryism. Poilievre is betting the former can deliver electoral success, but these resignations suggest not everyone in the caucus agrees.”
The question now becomes whether these departures represent isolated cases or the beginning of a larger exodus. Parliamentary sources indicate at least three other Conservative MPs are considering their futures, though none have made public announcements.
For Canadians watching from outside Ottawa’s bubble, these internal party dynamics might seem distant from everyday concerns about housing costs and inflation. Yet they could significantly shape electoral choices when voters next head to the polls.
“Party unity matters to voters,” notes pollster Nik Nanos. “Canadians are pragmatic – they want to know a potential government can function cohesively. Internal dissension raises questions about readiness to govern.”
As Parliament rises for summer, Poilievre faces the delicate task of maintaining his populist messaging while reassuring moderate party members they still have a place in his vision. How he navigates these waters will determine whether the Conservative Party can present itself as a credible government alternative or remains hampered by internal divisions.
The coming weeks will reveal whether the Conservative leader can transform these challenges into an opportunity to refine his message, or if more experienced MPs will follow Chong and Duncan out the door.
