As Premier François Legault wrapped up Quebec’s legislative session, he stood firm against suggestions that his government had lost its way. “We’re not perfect,” he admitted during his final press conference at the National Assembly. “But we’ve accomplished a lot.”
Behind this measured confidence lies a more complex reality. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government that once enjoyed unprecedented approval ratings now faces slipping poll numbers and growing economic anxiety across the province.
The Premier’s closing remarks emphasized a significant pivot. After years focused on identity politics and language protection, Legault declared the economy his “top priority” heading into 2024. This shift comes as inflation continues to squeeze household budgets and housing costs spiral beyond reach for many Quebecers.
“People are feeling the pinch at grocery stores and seeing their rent go up,” explains Marie Léveillé, economist at the University of Montreal. “The CAQ initially connected with voters through cultural identity, but you can’t eat identity politics. People need economic solutions.”
Recent Léger polling shows CAQ support has dropped to 31%, down from the commanding 41% that secured their second majority in 2022. The Quebec Liberal Party and Parti Québécois have gained ground, with 24% and 19% respectively, suggesting voters may be reconsidering their options.
Legault’s renewed economic focus seems directly tied to these numbers. During his year-end remarks, he highlighted several initiatives meant to address pocketbook issues: a promised $500 tax cut for middle-income families, new housing incentives, and infrastructure investments in Montreal and Quebec City.
“The Premier is trying to reposition himself as the practical manager rather than the identity warrior,” notes Daniel Béland, political science professor at McGill University. “But the question remains whether voters will give him credit for trying to solve problems his government initially downplayed.”
The economic challenges facing Quebec aren’t insignificant. While unemployment remains relatively low at 5.1%, GDP growth has stalled to just 0.9% this year, according to Statistics Canada. Housing starts have fallen well short of targets despite critical shortages in major urban centers.
Small business owners like Jean Tremblay, who runs a family hardware store in Saguenay, express frustration that’s becoming increasingly common. “They spent years debating language signs while my costs went up 30%. Now they say the economy matters? It always mattered to us.”
The CAQ’s strategy heading into 2024 appears two-fold: deliver tangible economic relief while reminding voters of accomplishments since taking power in 2018. Legault has highlighted investments in healthcare infrastructure, expanded pre-kindergarten programs, and steps toward greater provincial autonomy from Ottawa.
Finance Minister Eric Girard insisted the government’s fiscal house remains in order despite economic headwinds. “We’ve maintained our credit rating and kept deficits manageable while investing in Quebecers’ priorities,” he told reporters last week. The fall economic update projected a $4 billion deficit, higher than initially forecast but still within what the government considers reasonable bounds.
Opposition parties have seized on the economic situation. Liberal leader Marc Tanguay accused the government of “economic neglect” during heated exchanges in the National Assembly. “While the Premier was busy with Bill 96 and identity politics, Quebec’s economic competitiveness fell behind other provinces,” Tanguay charged.
Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has taken a different approach, arguing that only sovereignty would give Quebec the economic tools it needs. “We’re trying to navigate inflation and housing crises with one hand tied behind our back,” he said during debates.
Perhaps most concerning for the CAQ is that their traditional strongholds in Quebec’s regions are showing signs of economic distress. Manufacturing slowdowns have hit communities like Trois-Rivières and Drummondville, while resource-dependent towns face uncertainty from global market fluctuations.
“The regions delivered Legault his majority,” explains political analyst Chantal Hébert. “If they feel economically abandoned, the CAQ’s entire electoral coalition could fracture.”
As Christmas decorations appear across the province, Legault hopes his economic pivot will resonate with families gathering around holiday tables. His government has already signaled plans for a major economic announcement in January and promised that the spring budget will deliver meaningful relief.
Whether this shift comes too late remains an open question. The Premier still has nearly two years before the next election to convince Quebecers that his government can deliver prosperity alongside cultural protection. But first impressions matter in politics, and many voters formed theirs when the CAQ emphasized identity over economy.
As one CAQ insider acknowledged on condition of anonymity, “We know we need to show results on housing and inflation before the next campaign. People vote with their wallets when times get tough.”
For everyday Quebecers like Montrealer Sylvie Lapointe, who recently saw her monthly rent increase by $200, the government’s priorities seem increasingly disconnected from reality. “I don’t care about language laws when I’m worried about making rent,” she says. “I want to see real solutions, not just promises.”
As 2023 draws to a close, Legault’s economic pivot represents both an opportunity and acknowledgment of vulnerability. Whether it succeeds depends on whether Quebecers believe their Premier can deliver economic security with the same conviction he brought to questions of identity and language.
