Standing in the rain-soaked fields outside Chasiv Yar last week, I watched Ukrainian artillery fire illuminate the pre-dawn sky. The thunder of outgoing shells has become more desperate in recent days as Russian forces push forward at a pace not seen since the early months of the invasion.
“We’re firing everything we have, but it’s not enough,” Lieutenant Dmytro told me, his face illuminated by the glow of a cigarette. “The Russians come in waves. When one group dies, another appears.”
The past three weeks have witnessed Russian forces making their most significant territorial gains in eastern Ukraine since 2022. Moscow’s troops have advanced up to 10 kilometers in some sections of the Donetsk region, capturing several villages and threatening key Ukrainian defensive positions that have held for months.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the difficult situation during his nightly address on Sunday, saying the fighting had reached “maximum intensity” in several eastern sectors. “Our soldiers are doing everything possible to hold positions and inflict maximum losses on the occupiers,” he said.
But behind the official statements lies a starker reality. Ukrainian forces face critical ammunition shortages while Russian troops exploit their massive numerical advantage. According to data from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Russia has deployed approximately 50,000 additional troops to the eastern front since April, allowing them to sustain offensive operations despite heavy casualties.
The fall of the small mining town of Niu-York (New York) on June 13 opened a dangerous gap in Ukrainian lines. Russian forces quickly exploited this breakthrough, advancing toward Toretsk and threatening to encircle Ukrainian units in multiple settlements. Ukrainian military analysts estimate Russia has captured over 300 square kilometers of territory in the eastern Donetsk region since late May.
“The situation is approaching critical,” explained Oleksandr Solonko, a military analyst I’ve consulted with regularly during my five months covering this conflict. “The Russians are applying pressure across multiple axes simultaneously, preventing Ukrainian commanders from reinforcing threatened sections.”
The swift advances have shocked many observers who believed the front lines had largely stabilized. Since late 2022, progress has typically been measured in meters rather than kilometers. This dramatic shift stems from several interconnected factors.
First, Ukrainian forces continue facing severe ammunition constraints, particularly for artillery systems. Multiple brigade commanders confirmed to me that units are restricted to firing just 10-20% of what Russian forces can unleash. This disparity allows Russian troops to suppress Ukrainian positions effectively before advancing.
“I have five shells for every hundred they fire,” a Ukrainian artillery officer told me near Toretsk last Friday. “We must choose our targets carefully. Meanwhile, they shoot at anything that moves.”
Second, Russia has adapted its tactics. Rather than the massive armored assaults seen earlier in the war, Russian forces now employ small infantry groups supported by drones and precision artillery. When Ukrainian defenders reveal their positions to counter these groups, they face immediate drone strikes or artillery barrages.
The human cost has been staggering. Ukrainian medical evacuation teams report handling between 80-120 wounded soldiers daily from the Toretsk-Chasiv Yar sector alone. Russian casualties appear even higher, but Moscow seems willing to accept these losses to maintain offensive momentum.
Visiting a field hospital near Kramatorsk, I witnessed the grim reality facing Ukrainian medical personnel. “The wounded arrive faster than we can process them,” Dr. Iryna Kostenko explained as medics rushed another soldier from an ambulance. “Many have complex injuries from drone-dropped munitions—difficult to treat in field conditions.”
The deteriorating situation has intensified pressure on Ukraine’s Western partners to accelerate weapons deliveries. The recent U.S. aid package, delayed for months by congressional wrangling, has only begun reaching frontline units. Military officials say the impact won’t be felt for several more weeks.
European defense ministries have pledged additional support, with the UK announcing another £300 million in military aid last week. Yet the gap between promised assistance and battlefield reality remains substantial.
Perhaps most concerning is Russia’s apparent ability to sustain this offensive pace despite international sanctions and export controls. Western intelligence sources indicate that Russia has dramatically expanded its domestic production of artillery shells, reaching nearly 4 million rounds annually—significantly outpacing combined Western production for Ukraine.
“Russia has essentially transformed its economy to a wartime footing,” noted Emma Ashford from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Meanwhile, Western nations continue treating this as a limited conflict that can be managed with periodic aid packages.”
For civilians caught in the path of Russian advances, the situation has become increasingly dire. In Toretsk, where around 10,000 residents remain from a pre-war population of 30,000, evacuation efforts have accelerated. Local authorities report between 100-150 people leaving daily as Russian forces approach from three directions.
“I didn’t want to leave, but the shelling gets closer every day,” said Maria Petrenko, 67, as she boarded an evacuation bus with one small suitcase. “My neighbor’s house was hit yesterday. There’s nothing left to stay for.”
Ukrainian military leadership faces difficult decisions in the coming days. Continuing to hold positions in the face of overwhelming Russian firepower risks encirclement and further casualties. Yet each withdrawal brings Russian forces closer to the critical supply hubs of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
If current trends continue, military analysts project Russian forces could threaten these major urban centers by late summer—a scenario Ukrainian planners have desperately sought to prevent.
As darkness fell over eastern Ukraine last night, the sound of intense artillery fire echoed across the steppe. For the exhausted Ukrainian soldiers digging new defensive positions, the long-promised Western support cannot arrive soon enough.
