I spent three tense hours yesterday with Matthew Shoemaker, the visibly frustrated mayor of Sault Ste. Marie, as he navigated what he calls an “existential crisis” for his northern Ontario steel town following Donald Trump’s announced 25% tariff on Canadian steel.
“We’ve been here before, and it was devastating,” Shoemaker told me, referencing the 2018 steel tariffs that rocked his community of 73,000 residents. “But this time feels different. There’s no ambiguity about his intentions.”
The potential impact stretches far beyond this single industrial hub. Algoma Steel, the city’s largest employer with 2,800 workers, represents just one piece of Canada’s $15 billion steel industry that now sits squarely in Trump’s crosshairs.
“This isn’t just about steel. This is about whether we’re going to stand up for ourselves or roll over,” Shoemaker said, his voice rising as we walked through downtown, where nearly every business depends on steel wages circulating through the local economy.
The announced tariffs would take effect immediately after Trump’s January inauguration, giving Canadian officials precious little time to formulate a strategy. Sources at Global Affairs Canada confirm contingency planning is already underway, though they wouldn’t share specifics when pressed.
Canada’s previous retaliatory approach—targeting products from Republican strongholds with strategic counter-tariffs—proved surprisingly effective in 2018. Data from Statistics Canada showed steel exports rebounded within 18 months after those measures, alongside diplomatic pressure, led to the tariffs being lifted.
“We need the same playbook, but executed faster and more aggressively,” argues Brendan Marshall, Vice President of Economic and Northern Affairs at the Mining Association of Canada. “The Americans understand economic pain. That’s the language we need to speak.”
During my visit to Algoma’s massive lakefront facility, the constant rumble of production continued uninterrupted. But in the employee cafeteria, the mood was unmistakably tense.
“I’ve got three kids, a mortgage, and twenty years invested here,” said shift supervisor Thomas Caldwell, 47. “When politicians play these games, they don’t see our faces.”
According to economists at the C.D. Howe Institute, the previous steel tariffs cost Canada approximately 6,000 jobs across manufacturing sectors. Their latest modeling suggests this round could affect up to 9,000 positions, with Ontario bearing roughly 70% of those losses.
Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister, issued a statement calling Trump’s proposed tariffs “unjustified and counterproductive to both economies.” Yet current and former diplomatic officials I spoke with acknowledge the difficult path ahead.
“The strategic challenge is that Trump views tariffs as both policy tools and political weapons,” explains former Canadian ambassador to the U.S., David MacNaughton. “Responding effectively means understanding both dimensions.”
For Sault Ste. Marie, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The city has only recently begun recovering from decades of industrial contraction, with Algoma’s recent $700 million electric arc furnace project representing the kind of green manufacturing transition many rust belt communities desperately need.
“We finally had momentum,” Mayor Shoemaker said, pointing toward the waterfront where construction continues. “Now we’re right back to wondering if it all stops because of one man’s decision.”
What’s particularly frustrating for Canadian officials is the fundamental inaccuracy of Trump’s national security justification. Canada and the U.S. have deeply integrated defense industrial bases, with Canadian steel used in American military equipment and infrastructure.
“We literally built the Alaska Highway together during World War II,” remarked Senator Peter Harder, former deputy minister of Foreign Affairs. “The notion that Canadian steel threatens American security isn’t just wrong—it’s absurd.”
Industry observers note that such tariffs ultimately hurt American manufacturers as well. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated that the 2018-2019 tariffs cost American consumers and businesses approximately $6.9 billion in additional tax costs, plus $19 billion in disrupted supply chains.
As I prepared to leave Sault Ste. Marie, Mayor Shoemaker delivered what sounded like both a plea and a warning: “Ottawa needs to understand—this isn’t just an economic issue. It’s about whether Canadians will stand up for communities like ours, or whether we just accept that our livelihoods can be used as political pawns.”
The federal government has promised a proportional response if Trump implements his tariffs. Whether that response comes quickly enough for places like Sault Ste. Marie remains the urgent question hanging over thousands of Canadian families as they prepare for an uncertain 2025.
