I’ve just landed back in Washington after three days in Regina, Saskatchewan, where the prairie winds carry more than just the scent of wheat these days. They’re heavy with economic anxiety as Canadian officials wrestle with what many call the most aggressive trade stance from a U.S. administration in decades.
“We’re not panicking,” Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe told me during an exclusive interview at the provincial legislature. “The proposed tariffs would have minimal impact on our province’s economy.” His calm demeanor contrasted sharply with the emergency meetings being convened in Ottawa and provincial capitals across Canada.
The Trump administration’s announcement last week of potential 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports sent immediate shockwaves through North American markets. But Saskatchewan, with its resource-based economy and diverse export markets, appears less concerned than other provinces.
“We’ve been down this road before,” said Moe, referring to previous trade disputes with the U.S. “Saskatchewan has deliberately diversified our trade relationships over the past decade. Asia now accounts for almost 40% of our exports.”
Data from Statistics Canada supports Moe’s confidence. While the U.S. remains Saskatchewan’s largest trading partner, accounting for approximately $16 billion in annual exports, the province has significantly expanded its trade with China, India, and Southeast Asian nations. Potash, uranium, agricultural products, and oil now flow to dozens of countries through various trade agreements.
Mark Agnew, Senior Vice President of Policy at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, offers a more cautious assessment. “Saskatchewan may feel insulated because of its commodity mix, but integrated supply chains mean everyone feels the pain eventually,” he explained during our call yesterday. “When tariffs hit manufacturing in Ontario and Quebec, the ripple effects touch everyone.”
The province’s economic resilience was tested during previous trade disputes with the U.S., including steel and aluminum tariffs implemented in 2018. Saskatchewan emerged relatively unscathed compared to manufacturing-heavy provinces.
Walking through Regina’s downtown yesterday, I spoke with several business owners who expressed measured concern rather than panic. “We’ve weathered worse,” said James Kowalchuk, who runs a farm equipment dealership. “Between drought, floods, and previous trade wars, Saskatchewan businesses have learned to adapt.”
The current situation stems from the Trump administration’s aggressive posture on what it calls “unfair trade practices” by Canada, particularly regarding agricultural products and energy policy. While campaigning in Michigan last week, Trump specifically mentioned Canadian dairy and wheat as targets for his proposed tariff regime.
Premier Moe directly challenged these assertions during our interview. “Our trade relationship has been mutually beneficial for generations. The U.S. actually maintains a trade surplus with Canada in many sectors,” he said, citing figures from the Office of the United States Trade Representative that show the U.S. enjoyed a $3.7 billion goods and services trade surplus with Canada in 2023.
Saskatchewan Trade Minister Jeremy Harrison joined our discussion later, emphasizing the integrated nature of North American supply chains. “American consumers would ultimately bear much of the cost through higher prices,” Harrison said. “We’re talking about inflation pressures on everyday items, from cars to food products.”
While officials project public confidence, behind closed doors there’s growing concern about the potential escalation of trade tensions. A senior provincial economic advisor speaking on condition of anonymity told me that contingency planning is already underway. “We’re identifying vulnerable sectors and exploring support mechanisms if things deteriorate,” the advisor said.
Saskatchewan’s approach differs markedly from other provinces. Ontario Premier Doug Ford held emergency meetings with manufacturing leaders last week, while Quebec has announced a task force to address potential impacts on its aerospace and aluminum sectors.
The province’s resource wealth provides a buffer that others lack. Saskatchewan produces 30% of the world’s potash and is Canada’s second-largest oil producer. These commodities have global markets that wouldn’t be directly impacted by U.S. tariffs.
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, believes Saskatchewan’s agricultural sector faces more complex challenges. “While markets can be diverted, logistics can’t be changed overnight,” he told me. “Moving grain south is still more efficient than shipping west through congested ports.”
The economic stakes are substantial. According to the Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership, the province exported goods worth approximately $37 billion in 2023, with the U.S. accounting for just over 40% of that total.
Back in Premier Moe’s office, amid the carefully crafted messaging of resilience, I noticed a map showing Saskatchewan’s global trade connections—thick lines stretching to markets across Asia, Europe, and South America.
“This isn’t just talk about diversification,” Moe pointed to the map. “It’s been our economic strategy for years. That’s why I can honestly say we’re concerned but not alarmed.”
As I left the provincial legislature, a spring storm was brewing over the prairie horizon—perhaps an apt metaphor for the economic uncertainties ahead. Saskatchewan may weather this potential trade tempest better than most, but even the heartiest wheat bends when the winds blow strong enough.
