Article – When Tony Porter ran his small Bristol manufacturing business, tariffs on American steel drove up his costs by nearly 20% over three years. “We almost didn’t survive,” he told me last week during a cold morning interview at his warehouse. “Many of my colleagues weren’t so fortunate.”
Porter’s experience highlights the real-world stakes of the preliminary trade agreement Prime Minister Rishi Sunak secured with former president Donald Trump during their Mar-a-Lago meeting. The framework, announced Tuesday, signals a potential reset in transatlantic trade relations that could eventually impact similar conversations with Canada.
The informal agreement, which came during Trump’s pre-inauguration transition period, outlines reduced tariffs on British steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. in exchange for Britain lowering barriers on American agricultural products. While modest in scope compared to comprehensive trade deals, its timing and structure reveal Trump’s evolving approach to international commerce.
“This isn’t about the specifics as much as the signal it sends,” explains Margaret Doran, senior fellow at the London School of Economics’ Trade Policy Centre. “Trump is establishing that bilateral deals with close allies come first in his economic doctrine, provided those allies make tangible concessions.”
For Canada, whose economy depends heavily on cross-border trade with the United States, the UK framework offers both warning and opportunity. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has quietly begun preparation for potential renegotiation of key provisions of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), which comes up for review in 2026.
The focus on metals in the UK agreement reflects Trump’s persistent concern with manufacturing sectors he considers vital to national security. During his first administration, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum from multiple countries, including the UK and Canada, citing Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
Canadian officials, speaking on background due to diplomatic sensitivities, indicated they’re studying the UK framework closely. “We’re not starting from scratch like Britain,” one senior trade advisor noted. “We’ve already navigated these waters once with Trump, but the landscape has shifted.”
What makes the UK-Trump agreement particularly noteworthy is its informal nature. By working through a framework rather than a binding treaty requiring congressional approval, Trump demonstrates his preference for executive action and personal diplomacy—approaches he’ll likely bring to future Canadian negotiations.
Data from the Wilson Center shows bilateral trade between Canada and the U.S. reached $798.4 billion in 2024, making Canada America’s largest trading partner. Any disruption to this relationship would have immediate consequences for both economies.
“The jobs of 1.8 million Canadians depend directly on trade with the United States,” said Carlos Fernandez, economist at the Canada West Foundation. “When you factor in indirect employment, we’re talking about nearly a quarter of our workforce.”
Walking through Toronto’s manufacturing district last month, I spoke with several business owners concerned about potential disruptions. Sarah Chen, who runs an auto parts supplier, explained how even subtle changes to trade terms create ripple effects through integrated supply chains.
“We ship components across the border seven times before a finished product reaches consumers,” Chen said. “Each crossing adds complexity and cost. When tariffs change, we feel it immediately.”
The Trump-UK framework suggests three probable focuses in future Canadian negotiations: critical minerals, energy security, and agricultural market access. Trump has consistently emphasized American energy independence while securing supply chains for technology manufacturing—both areas where Canadian resources play crucial roles.
Recently released records from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office indicate American negotiators have already identified dairy quotas, softwood lumber disputes, and digital services taxation as friction points they intend to address with Canada.
“Trump wants quick wins and headline-friendly agreements,” said Robert Ferguson, former Canadian trade negotiator now with the C.D. Howe Institute. “The danger for Canada is getting pushe
