As peace murmurs emerged from the Swiss conference earlier this month, I found myself revisiting conversations with Ukrainian military officers I’d spoken with near Kharkiv just weeks before. Their skepticism about diplomatic solutions now seems prescient amid reports of a U.S.-led initiative that appears to offer concessions to Moscow without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s full endorsement.
The proposal, first reported by NBC News and subsequently confirmed through diplomatic sources I’ve consulted in Brussels, would effectively freeze the conflict along current battle lines while creating demilitarized zones. “This isn’t peace—it’s a pause button that benefits only one side,” a senior European diplomat told me on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of ongoing negotiations.
What’s particularly troubling about this development is its timing. Russian forces have recently made incremental but significant territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Avdiivka and parts of the Donetsk region. Freezing the conflict now would essentially reward Moscow’s recent offensive push while Ukraine struggles with ammunition shortages and delayed Western military aid.
The diplomatic efforts come as multiple Ukrainian defense analysts have privately expressed concern about their country’s capacity to mount significant counteroffensives without substantial new military support. “We’re fighting with one hand tied behind our back,” Colonel Serhiy Hrabsky, a former Ukrainian military officer now working as a defense analyst in Kyiv, explained during our conversation last week.
According to data from the Institute for the Study of War, Russia currently occupies approximately 18% of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory. Any peace arrangement codifying these battle lines would leave the Kremlin in control of significant Ukrainian land, energy resources, and infrastructure—hardly the outcome Ukrainian citizens expected when the West promised unwavering support.
The White House has publicly denied any agreement has been finalized, with National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stating that “no peace process can move forward without Ukraine’s full participation.” However, multiple sources within NATO have confirmed to me that behind-the-scenes discussions have explored scenarios that would effectively normalize Russian occupation of certain territories.
These discussions reflect a growing reality: Washington appears increasingly focused on containing the conflict rather than helping Ukraine achieve its stated goal of full territorial restoration. This shift comes amid U.S. election year politics and European fatigue over the economic impacts of supporting Ukraine.
“The fundamental problem is that Western resolve is measured in months, while Putin’s is measured in years,” said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former NATO Secretary-General, during a recent security forum in Brussels I attended. “Any ‘frozen conflict’ scenario simply gives Russia time to rearm and prepare for the next phase of confrontation.”
During my recent reporting from refugee centers in Poland, I met Olena, a 73-year-old grandmother from a village near Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast. “They expect us to accept that our homes now belong to Russia?” she asked me. “I’ve already lost my son to this war. What was his sacrifice for if we surrender territory now?”
Her question underscores the human dimension often missing from high-level diplomatic discussions. According to UN figures, the conflict has displaced approximately 6.5 million Ukrainians internally, with another 5.9 million registered as refugees abroad. A peace deal that cedes territory would leave many of these displaced people with no prospect of returning home.
The economic implications are equally concerning. Ukraine’s GDP contracted by approximately 29.1% in 2022, according to World Bank data. While the economy showed signs of stabilization in 2023, permanent loss of territory would severely undermine Ukraine’s long-term economic viability, particularly given the mineral resources and industrial capacity concentrated in eastern regions.
Further complicating matters are apparent disagreements within the Western alliance. While U.S. officials have reportedly explored compromise solutions, leaders in Poland, the Baltic states, and the UK have maintained stronger public positions against territorial concessions.
“This isn’t just about Ukraine anymore,” a senior Polish defense ministry official told me last week. “If Putin
